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Is the fact that OPEC+ has continuously announced increased production while the Strait of Hormuz is almost paralyzed? Is it a sign that the oil market is lacking more serious oil than the world knows?
In a notable development in the global energy market, OPEC+ has just decided to increase its oil production target by about 188,000 barrels per day from July 2026. This is the fourth consecutive month that the alliance has increased its exploitation quota, despite the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remaining extremely tense.
It is worth mentioning that this decision was made in the context that many important oil shipping routes are being affected by military conflicts and the risk of prolonged blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important energy transportation route.
OPEC+ PRODUCTION INCREASE EVOLUTION
Stage Target Increment
April 2026 206,000 barrels/day
May 2026 206,000 barrels/day
June 2026 188,000 barrels/day
July 2026 188,000 barrels/day
Total Nearly 600,000 monthsgulp/day
In theory, this is a huge amount of additional oil for the global market.
However, the reality is completely different.
THE BIGGEST PARADOX OF THE OIL MARKET 2026
Although OPEC+ continuously increased quotas, actual output decreased sharply.
COMPARISON TABLE
OPEC Output Timing
February 2026 42.77 million barrels/day
April 2026 33.19 million barrels/day
Difference Reduced by 9.58 million barrels/day
This figure shows that the amount of oil lost from the market is many times larger than the additional output that OPEC+ just announced.
THE SEA OF HORMUZ IS A HOT SPOT
Hormuz is likened to the planet's energy valve.
About 20% of global oil trade passes through this region.
When this route is interrupted, every oil importing country is affected.
Japan
Korea
China
India
European countries
all monitor every development at Hormuz almost in real time.
Just an incident lasting a few weeks could cause oil prices to rise sharply globally.
UAE LEAVES OPEC AND BATTLES TO THE ALLIANCE
One of the biggest upheavals in 2026 is the United Arab Emirates' decision to leave OPEC after nearly 60 years of participation.
This event caused many experts to question the futureof the world's largest oil producer alliance.
TABLE OF KEY MEMBERS RUNNING OPEC+
Country
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Iraq
Kuwait
Algeria
Kazakhstan
Oman
This is the group of countries that currently plays a role in determining OPEC+'s output policy.
HOW OIL PRICES MAY IMPACT VIETNAM
If oil prices increase by 10 USD per barrel, many domestic sectors will be under pressure.
⛽ Transportation fuel prices
Industrial production costs
Logistics costs
✈️ Airline ticket prices
Prices of consumer goods
For example, for a large transportation enterprise that consumes about 1 million liters of fuel per month, fuel price fluctuations of just a few thousand VND per liter can result in costs of billions of VND.
WHAT MESSAGE IS OPEC+ SENDING
Many analysts believe that successive quota increases are not simply economic actions.
It is also a political signal to reassure the market that oil supply is still under control.
However, when actual output dropped sharply and strategic transport routes continued to face risks, the market still could not rest assured.
⚡ MOST NOTEWORTHY SCENARIOS IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2026
Impact Scenario
Hormuz operates normally Oil prices are stable
Hormuz partially disrupts oil pricesstrong
Hormuz's prolonged blockade Risk of energy crisis
Middle East conflict spreads Oil prices can fluctuate greatly
The oil market in 2026 is experiencing a rare paradox. OPEC+ continuously announced increased production, but the amount of oil actually reaching buyers decreased sharply because of fighting, affected infrastructure and increasing transportation risks.
What worries investors the most is not the number of 188,000 barrels of oil per day but the millions of barrels of oil that are having difficulty on their way from the Middle East to the world.
If the Strait of Hormuz continues to be tense for a few more months, do you think gasoline prices in Vietnam will increase sharply or does the market have enough reserves to avoid a new energy shock?
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