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If gasoline prices increase by only 2,000 VND/liter in a few weeks, will millions of Vietnamese households and businesses have to silently shoulder tens of trillions of VND in additional costs each year?
At around 4:00 p.m. on June 15, 2026, the article posted on CafeF continued to heat up the topic of energy security and the impact of gasoline prices on the Vietnamese economy. The content emphasizes the important fact that gasoline is not only a fuel for vehicles but also a strategic link that determines production, transportation, consumption costs and inflation control.
In the context of many geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the global crude oil market is constantly fluctuating. Every small change in oil prices has the potential to create a chain effect that spreads to the entire economy.
The relationship between gasoline prices and CPI
Direct Impact Factor
Gasoline prices increase. Transportation costs increase
Transportation increases Commodity prices increase
Commodity prices increase CPI increases
CPI increases. Pressure on interest rates increases
Increased Interest Rates Costscorporate capital increases
Capital costs increase Competitiveness decreases
This is the reason why many economic experts always consider energy prices as one of the most important variables for macroeconomic stability.
How does the domino effect happen?
Transport
A container truck running the Ho Chi Minh City - Hanoi route can consume hundreds of liters of fuel for each trip.
If fuel prices increase
1,000 VND/liter
The cost of each trip increases by hundreds of thousands of VND.
2,000 VND/liter
Costs increase by millions of VND per month for medium-sized logistics businesses.
5,000 VND/liter
May force many businesses to adjust shipping price lists.
Industrial production
Cement, steel, chemical, food, plastic, and fertilizer factories all use energy in the production process.
When fuel prices increase
✔ Input material prices increased
✔ Operating costs increase
✔ Product prices increase
✔ Profits decrease
✔ Reduced competitiveness
Consumers
The final impact often appears in traditional markets, supermarkets and retail stores.
A small increase in logistics costs can increase the price of food, household appliances and many essential items.
Impact on the economy
Field Sensitivity level bothm with gasoline prices
Logistics Very high
Aviation Very high
High Seafood
High Agriculture
Heavy Industry Cao
Retail Average
Low Tech
Lessons from energy crises
The 1973 oil crisis caused many major economies to fall into recession.
In 2022, Brent oil prices exceeded about 120 USD/barrel after the conflict in Russia and Ukraine, leading to sharp increases in inflation in the US, Europe and many Asian countries.
The scariest thing is not high oil prices but the risk of supply disruption.
When fuel cannot flow normally, the entire supply chain can grind to a halt.
The role of energy infrastructure businesses
Key enterprises and reserve warehouse systems act as "shock absorbers" of the economy.
Units such as Petrolimex, PVOIL, BSR and strategic port warehouses help maintain continuous supply even when the world market fluctuates.
Illustrate the impact of oil prices
Brent oil price Market sentiment
Below 70 USD/barrel Stable
70 - 90 USD/barrel Follow closely
90 - 110 USD/barrel Inflationary pressure
Over 110 USD/barrel High economic risk
What many people don't realize is that every time you fill up your gas tank, it's not just the story of one car. It's also a storyof vegetable prices in the market, airline ticket prices, freight costs, corporate profits and the health of the entire economy.
As the world enters a volatile period in energy, the ability to reserve, manage supply and ensure energy security will become one of the determining factors in Vietnam's resilience to global economic shocks.
What do you think is more dangerous for Vietnam right now, the increase in oil prices to 120 USD/barrel or the risk of gasoline supply disruption for a few weeks? Please share your perspective.
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