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If the Strait of Hormuz is truly fully reopened and the risk of war disappears, could Brent oil prices fall deeply to below 70 USD/barrel, causing many oil exporting countries to face a revenue shock?
Brent oil prices are becoming the focus of global investors' attention when they suddenly dropped sharply after a series of positive signals from the Middle East. Concerns about the risk of oil supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz once pushed oil prices up in a short period of time, but now the market is witnessing a completely opposite situation.
According to international sources, market sentiment changed rapidly after signals appeared that the US and Iran had reached an agreement to end military tensions. At the same time, the possibility of restoring oil and gas transportation activities through the Strait of Hormuz also makes traders sharply reduce the risk premium that was added to oil prices.
HOW IMPORTANT IS THE SEA OF HORMUZ?
Hormuz is considered the world's "energy valve".
Value Index
Oil shipped through Hormuz every day Clauseg 20 million barrels
The proportion of global oil supply is nearly 20%
Countries dependent on this route are Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran
Role of the world's largest oil export route
If the risk of a blockade appears for just a few days, oil prices can increase by tens of percent.
However, when this risk decreases, the market immediately reacts in the opposite direction.
BRENT OIL PRICE DEVELOPMENT
Trend Phase
Military tensions escalated. Increased sharply
Fears of Hormuz being blocked Price explosion
News of US-Iran detente dropped sharply
Expect stable supply Continue to be under downward pressure
Trend illustration
️ 90 USD/barrel
️ 85 USD/barrel
️ 80 USD/barrel
️ 75 USD/barrel
⬇️ Reduced pressure appears
WHO BENEFITS FROM DECREASING OIL PRICES?
Falling oil prices are not bad news for everyone.
Beneficiary group
✅ Airlines
✅ Logistics business
✅ Marine transportation business
✅ Consumers buy gasoline
✅ Energy importing economies
Group under pressure
⚠️ Oil exporting country
⚠️ High-cost oil exploitation businesses
⚠️ Low profit margin oil and gas projects
⚠️ The investment fund is holding a long oil position
COMPARE IMPACT ON COUNTRIES
Country Impact when oil falls
Saudi Arabia Reduces budget revenue
IraqFinancial pressure increases
Russia Export revenue decreased
China Benefits from Large Imports
Japan Reduces energy costs
Korea Supports industrial production
WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?
Experts are currently divided into two views.
The first group believes that Brent oil prices can continue to adjust if the US and Iran can maintain the agreement and Hormuz operates normally.
The second group believes that any military incident in the Middle East could cause oil prices to rebound in just a few trading hours.
What is worth noting is that the oil market currently not only reacts to actual supply and demand but also reacts very strongly to geopolitical factors. Just one statement from Washington, Tehran or Riyadh can cause billions of dollars in investment capital to shift immediately.
BRENT OIL PRICE SCENARIO
Scenario Expected price level
The truce lasts 70 - 80 USD/barrel
Tension maintained at 80 - 90 USD/barrel
Escalating conflict Over 100 USD/barrel
The world oil market is facing an important turning point. After weeks of strong fluctuations due to fighting, investors are now switching to betting on a peaceful scenario and more stable supply. However, the Middle East is always the most difficult region to predict in the world, and only needs one cluen small incidents, the current trend can reverse very quickly.
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