Russia's Fuel Crisis: Latest Developments in the Energy Sector
On June 4th, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak addressed reporters regarding the increasingly severe fuel crisis gripping the nation. While acknowledging that oil production had declined due to "unscheduled maintenance" at refineries, he avoided specifying the exact causes of this situation. However, by June 9th, Russia's Ministry of Energy officially confirmed that "energy companies have encountered an increase in enemy air attacks, leading to temporary difficulties in supply." This marked the first time Russian authorities admitted that heightened attacks from Ukraine had resulted in production cuts and fuel shortages.
The Root Causes of the Crisis
Nikhil Dubey, senior research analyst at Kpler, a commodity information firm, emphasized that the issue stems not only from increased attacks but also from more precise targeting. He explained that refineries contain multiple units, and attacking specific components such as distillation columns can cause greater damage.
| Equipment Type | Function | Replacement Time |
|---|---|---|
| Distillation Column | Crude oil distillation | Shorter |
| Hydrocracker | Sulfur removal, diesel production | Longer (weeks to months) |
Kpler data shows that secondary processing capacity at Russian refineries fell by approximately 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day in May, higher than the previous year, with a significant portion attributed to drone attacks. Russia's diesel production decreased by 10% in May, following a similar decline in April.
Economic Consequences
"If attackers continuously target such equipment, the economic impact will be much greater than just attacking storage tanks or primary distillation units," noted Tatiana Mitrova from the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. Repeated attacks on the same refinery also slow down repair processes, leading to more severe shortages.
The Escalation of Attacks
Ukraine has attacked refineries multiple times in a short period, particularly at Tuapse, an oil export port on the Black Sea, which was attacked three times in April and twice in May. CREA data shows that oil exports at Tuapse decreased by 91% in May compared to the previous year.
| Refinery Name | Number of Attacks (April) | Number of Attacks (May) | Production Decrease (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuapse | 3 | 2 | 91 |
| Ust-Luga | Unknown | Unknown | Increased by 49 (May) |
Current Situation
Ukraine's attacks have not been limited to refineries but have expanded to oil export facilities. However, the recovery capability of ports like Ust-Luga shows a different pattern, with May oil exports increasing by 49% compared to the previous month.
Crisis or Breaking Point?
While the conflict is not new, the scale of attacks has increased this year. According to ACLED data, the number of attacks on targets at least 100km from Ukraine's border has risen to 658 in 2025. This raises the question of whether Russia is facing a "breaking point" in its fuel crisis.
Mitrova commented: "Ukraine's attacks have become more significant not because they have broken Russia's oil and gas system, but because they are exhausting the system's ability to adapt under pressure. The impact of these attacks is becoming a crucial factor in Russia's current fuel crisis."