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US oil inventories have decreased by more than 52 million barrels in just 9 weeks. Is this a sign of a new oil price increase that will surprise the global energy market?
The world oil market has just received notable data when the American Petroleum Institute (API) announced that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 8.33 million barrels in the week ending June 12.
This number is nearly double the forecast of a decrease of 4.5 million barrels by analysts and continues to extend the series of sharp declines in US oil inventories over the past two months.
Before that, the adjacent week also recorded a huge decrease of up to 9.119 million barrels.
Picture of US Crude Oil Inventories
Data Indicators
Inventory reduction in the latest week was 8.33 million barrels
Market forecast of 4.5 million barrels
Inventory reduction last week was 9.119 million barrels
Total decrease in 9 weeks is 52 million barrels
Volatility from early 2026 -1.4 million barrels
Although inventories have dropped sharply recently, API data shows that US crude oil inventories have only decreased by about 1.4 million barrels since the beginning of the year. ThingThis shows that most of the previously stored oil is still at a relatively high level.
Why Is Inventory Continuously Decreasing?
There are many factors that are simultaneously affecting oil supply in the US.
Summer fuel demand increases sharply
Peak tourist season in the US often leads to a rapid increase in demand for gasoline and transportation fuel, forcing refineries to operate at higher capacity.
Oil filtration capacity restored
Many refineries have completed routine maintenance and begun increasing output, drawing more crude from commercial reserves.
Geopolitical tensions
Developments in the Middle East, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to make the market worried about global supply.
Comparison with Previous Periods of Oil Price Increases
Period Oil Price Inventory Trend
2022 Sharp decrease Brent exceeds 120 USD/barrel
2024 Average Brent decrease around 80 USD/barrel
2026 currently Decreases very strongly Brent fluctuates around 90 USD/barrel
It is worth noting that the current rate of inventory reduction is among the strongest in recent years.
The SPR Strategic Oil Reserve Is Being Monitored
In addition to commercial inventories, investors are also particularly interested in the US strategic oil reserve SPR.
SPR was strongly withdrawn in gA period of rising energy prices to stabilize the market. However, in recent years, the US has gradually replenished its oil reserves.
If geopolitical tensions continue to escalate or global supply is disrupted, the SPR could become an important tool for Washington to stabilize fuel prices.
Impact on World Oil Prices
Deep inventory data is often seen as a sign of support for oil prices.
Factors supporting the market include:
✅ US oil inventories decreased rapidly
✅ Summer fuel demand increases
✅ Geopolitical risks in the Middle East
✅ Potential disruption of oil transportation through Hormuz
However, the market still faces upside risks
❌ Global economic growth slows down
❌ Risk of weakening consumer demand
❌ Output from the US and OPEC+ may increase again
Comments
US crude oil inventories decreased by 8.33 million barrels, far exceeding market forecasts, showing that the balance of supply and demand is tightening faster than expected. If this trend continues in the coming weeks, Brent oil prices can completely maintain above the threshold of 90 USD/barrel and even move towards higher milestones if there are additional supply shocks from the Middle East.
The oil market is entering an extremely sensitive periodsensitivity, where just one geopolitical event or an unexpected inventory report can change the trend of global energy prices.
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