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If the Middle East only needs a ceasefire to cause the oil market to slow down, is oil price really being controlled by supply and demand or by fear of war?
The oil and gas market today recorded a lull after news that Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement. This is a signal that gives investors a reason to "pause" after many sessions of strong fluctuations due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
However, the global energy picture is still not really stable. WTI and Brent oil prices continued to increase slightly, while some groups of natural gas, LNG and OPEC basket oil decreased, showing that the market is clearly divided between expectations of cooling down the war and concerns that supply is still fragile.
1. Market focus today
Main energy price list
Item Latest price Fluctuation
WTI Crude 76.54 USD/barrel +0.91%
Brent Crude 80.57 USD/barrel +0.90%
Murban Crude 73.63 USD/barrel -0.41%
Natural Gas 3,198 USD/MMBtu -1.08%
Gasoline 3.004 USD/gallon +0.31%
Heating Oil 3,195 USD/gallon +2.15%
WTI Midland 77.74 USD/barrel +0.88%
Mars 89.22 USD/barrel +0.08%
2. Notable international oil benchmarks and indexes
Oil type/index Latest price Volatility
OPEC Basket 82.52 USD/barrel -1.46%
DME Oman 74.12 USD/barrel +0.34%
Mexican Basket 73.72 USD/barrel +0.92%
Indian Basket 76.22 USD/barrel -2.88%
Urals 64.54 USD/barrel +0.59%
Western Canadian Select 63.50 USD/barrel -1.46%
Dubai 81.29 USD/barrel -0.01%
Brent Weighted Average 78.10 USD/barrel -1.91%
Louisiana Light 82.18 USD/barrel +1.06%
ANS West Coast 89.90 USD/barrel +0.23%
Gulf Coast HSFO 75.77 USD/barrel +0.45%
3. OPEC and the Middle East continue to be the most sensitive regions
Type of oil Latest price Volatility
Arab Light 83.72 USD/barrel +2.94%
Kuwait Export Blend 86.47 USD/barrel 0.00%
Arab Extra Light 84.22 USD/barrel +2.92%
Arab Heavy 80.62 USD/barrel +3.06%
Arab Medium 81.97 USD/barrel +3.00%
Basrah Heavy 50.48 USD/barrel +4.93%
Basrah Medium 52.58 USD/barrel +4.72%
Iran Light 75.80 USD/barrel -1.97%
Iran Heavy 73.90 USD/barrel -2.02%
Forozan Blend 74.15 USD/barrel -2.01%
Soroosh 70.00 USD/barrel -2.13%
Sokol 75.62 USD/barrel +1.44%
Azeri Light 91.48 USD/barrel +2.71%
Lula 81.98 USD/barrel +2.36%
CPC Blend 89.48 USD/barrel +2.77%
4. Gas and LNG dropped sharply, a notable signal for the industrynh energy
Item Latest price Fluctuation
AECO C Natural Gas 1,250 USD/MMBtu -0.79%
Dutch TTF Natural Gas 13.66 USD/MMBtu -4.18%
LNG Japan/Korea Marker 15.32 USD/MMBtu -18.46%
This development shows that crude oil is still supported by geopolitical factors, while gas and LNG are under stronger adjustment pressure. This is something to watch because if Asian demand weakens or LNG supply recovers quickly, gas prices could continue to fluctuate widely.
5. Hot topic at Congnghedaukhi.com today
Topic group Featured keywords Impact
Geopolitics Israel, Hezbollah, Middle East, ceasefire Reducing war risk pressure on oil prices
Oil prices of WTI, Brent, Murban, OPEC Basket Market is divided, downtrend has not been confirmed
Gas LNG Japan/Korea, Dutch TTF, Natural Gas Strong fluctuations, need to monitor Asian demand
OPEC Arab Light, Kuwait Export, Basrah, Iran Heavy Middle East supply remains the focus
Russian and Canadian oil Urals, Sokol, Western Canadian Select Discounted prices still create large differences
Industrial energy Heating Oil, Gasoline, HSFO Refined fuels increased slightly, reflecting good demand
6. Quick judgment
The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah gives the oil market a breaklimited, but not enough to eliminate geopolitical risks in the Middle East. WTI at 76.54 USD/barrel and Brent at 80.57 USD/barrel show that oil prices still maintain a high base, while OPEC Basket decreased to 82.52 USD/barrel reflecting the market's caution.
The most notable point today is the contrast between crude oil and gas. Oil is still anchored by supply risks, while LNG Japan/Korea Marker decreased by 18.46%, showing that the gas market is under great pressure from short-term supply and demand expectations.
Conclusion
The oil and gas market today is not booming but is extremely worth watching. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah can help oil prices cool down temporarily, but as long as there is a new sign of tension in the Middle East, WTI and Brent can completely reverse sharply. For energy businesses, commodity investors and fuel importers, this is the period when it is necessary to closely monitor every day's price fluctuations.
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