Recovery in Maritime Traffic: Oil Tankers Increase Transmissions Through Strait of Hormuz
In recent hours, there has been a notable increase in oil tankers transmitting location signals and intentions to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a tentative recovery in vessel traffic through this critical trade route.
The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most vital maritime chokepoints, has witnessed a significant shift in oil tanker operations following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran to negotiate a peace agreement. This change reflects an improvement in the regional security context, although long-term stability concerns remain.
The Rise of "Dark Mode" in Maritime Traffic
Before the US-Iran agreement was signed, the majority of oil tankers moving through and around the Strait of Hormuz operated in what is known as "dark mode," with positioning devices and Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) turned off. This tactic was once characteristic of measures to evade Iranian sanctions but has become prevalent in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and particularly at the Strait of Hormuz as vessel owners and carriers sought to protect their cargo from potential attacks.
The practice of ships traveling in dark mode has further complicated the already challenging task for market analysts and observers in estimating the lost supply in the Middle East and determining which cargoes were still reaching buyers through clandestine movements out of the region.
Recovery Following the US-Iran Agreement
Since the signing of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, numerous vessels have begun broadcasting their positions openly, following standard tracking signals monitored by Bloomberg.
According to data, on Tuesday morning local time, as many as seven oil tankers were transmitting signals indicating they were in the Strait of Hormuz—including two Iranian-flagged very large crude carriers (VLCCs) moving outward, three fuel oil tankers moving outward, and two Iranian-flagged Suezmax tankers moving into the Gulf.
Analysis of the Traffic Recovery
The increased visibility in oil tanker positioning suggests a tentative recovery in confidence, though vessel owners remain cautious about sudden changes in navigation conditions, including conflicting signals from the US and Iran regarding whether the strait remains open and where mines need to be cleared.
Maritime intelligence firm Windward reported that a total of 25 visible AIS transits through Hormuz were recorded on June 22, including French and Qatari LNG carriers.
Persistent Challenges
However, in a sign that shipping companies are still awaiting complete approval, the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) was unable to charter three oil tankers to pick up crude oil and gas from the Persian Gulf and transport these volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, as many vessel owners and operators remain highly cautious about sending vessels to the region.
The table below summarizes the traffic situation through the Strait of Hormuz before and after the US-Iran agreement:
| Time Period | Traffic Situation | Key Characteristics |
|---|---|---|
| Before US-Iran Agreement | Significant decrease in traffic | Most vessels operated in dark mode, with positioning devices turned off |
| After US-Iran Agreement | Tentative traffic recovery | Increased number of vessels broadcasting position signals openly |
Impact on the Energy Market
The shift in oil tanker operations through the Strait of Hormuz has significant implications for the global energy market. This strait is a critical route for crude oil and petroleum products transportation, with approximately 20-30% of globally traded oil passing through the region.
The recovery in normal traffic could help stabilize the market by increasing transparency in oil flow tracking, thereby reducing uncertainty about supply. However, caution still prevails, and any escalation of tensions in the future could quickly reverse current improvements.
Conclusion
Despite positive signs of traffic recovery through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation remains fragile and dependent on political developments between the US and Iran. The increase in oil tanker position broadcasting shows a definite improvement in the security context, though vessel owners and operators maintain a high degree of caution.
Closely monitoring developments in the region and official statements from relevant parties will be key to assessing whether this recovery can be sustained long-term or represents merely a temporary phase before potential future instabilities.