China's Antimony Ban Sends Prices Skyrocketing 2,600%; Rare Earths May Be Next in Crosshairs

China's Export Control of Antimony: Precursor to the Next Mineral Warfare

In 2024, China announced export controls on antimony - a metal most people had never heard of. However, antimony is a crucial component in over 200 types of military ammunition. Within weeks, the price of antimony surged from $1,400/ton to $38,000/ton, a staggering 2,600% increase, and shipments to the US declined by 97%. Today, Beijing is preparing for a much larger move, and REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) - an American rare earth mineral company - has spent years preparing for this scenario.

Antimony: The Forgotten Military Weapon

Antimony may be an obscure metal, but its strategic importance is undeniable. It is an indispensable component in many types of military ammunition, from artillery shells to guidance systems. When China imposed export controls, the immediate consequences were visible on the global market.

Price fluctuations:

• Before controls: $1,400/ton
• After controls: $38,000/ton
• Percentage increase: 2,600%
• Shipments to US reduced: 97%

This event was not just a price shock but also a warning about other countries' dependence on Chinese supply chains. American weapons manufacturers, in particular, realized they were holding by a single thread connecting them to Beijing.

China Prepares for the Next "Mineral Weapon"

While antimony caused the initial shock, analysts believe China is preparing for a much larger move: export controls on heavy rare earth elements, particularly dysprosium and terbium. These metals are at the center of China's next "mineral weapon."

These heavy rare earth elements are discussed less frequently than light rare earths, but they are the metals inside every drone motor, every missile guidance system, and every fighter jet engine that the Pentagon deploys. They are irreplaceable components for modern weapon systems.

REalloys: The American Solution

In this context, REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) - an American rare earth mineral company - has spent years preparing for this scenario. The company holds an exclusive 80% of the output from the only non-Chinese rare earth processing plant in North America capable of processing heavy rare earths.

The company operates its own metallurgical facility in Euclid, Ohio, and plans to source raw materials from the US, Canada, Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Greenland, meaning no Chinese inputs at any stage. The heavy rare earth materials at the center of China's next mineral weapon, such as dysprosium and terbium, are exactly the materials REalloys has spent years preparing to supply.

China's Export Control Strategy: An Evolving History

What happened with antimony is not an isolated incident. It is just the latest chapter in a long-running escalation by China, which has only accelerated in the past three years.

Each of these moves has made REalloys' supply chain - built entirely beyond China's reach - more valuable than the day before. Each wave has been larger than the previous one. And each has targeted materials deeper in the supply chain, more irreplaceable, and more critical to Western defense, which is why price data has started telling the story.

Price Data Has Started to Show

You don't need to guess what the rare earth version of antimony would look like. The early signals are already in the price data. Terbium - one of the two heavy rare earth elements at the center of military-grade magnets - has increased by 103% just this year. Dysprosium and terbium from non-Chinese sources are now trading at three to four times the domestic Chinese price - a spread that didn't exist two years ago.

Meanwhile, China's rare earth magnet exports to the US have decreased by 22.5% compared to the same period in 2026, even as total magnet exports have increased. A two-tiered world is forming, threatening militaries across the West. It's a world where you're charged one price if you buy from China, and a significantly higher price if you don't. That gap is only widening.

REalloys operates entirely on the non-China side of that divide. This means their output can be priced at the higher price point, and their supply chain is one of the few that can actually deliver.

How Far Ahead is REalloys?

Antimony showed what happens when a mineral is weaponized and there's no backup supplier. REalloys has built the backup supplier for heavy rare earths, and the initial advantage has placed them three to seven years ahead of competitors trying to start today.

On the processing side, this takes place at the Saskatchewan Research Council's Rare Earth Processing Facility, where REalloys has secured the majority of output under an exclusive operating agreement. From there, the company plans to send the oxides to Euclid, Ohio, where it intends to convert them into military-grade metals and alloys as ready-to-use inputs for the magnets that contractors actually purchase.

On the raw materials side, REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) has secured agreements with the highest-grade rare earth mine in the US, adding to existing sources in Canada, Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Greenland. This means no single point of failure and no Chinese technology, chemicals, or equipment at any critical stage.

Furthermore, earlier this year, the company demonstrated a pending patent process that removes hazardous hydrofluoric acid from a critical stage in rare earth metal production - potentially cutting costs further, simplifying infrastructure, and removing one of the world's most dangerous chemicals from the process.

The Timeline to Do All This Is Urgent

After years of seeing supply chain cracks widen in the defense sector, the Pentagon has finally drawn a clear line.

That's because new DFARS procurement rules taking effect January 1, 2027, will ban Chinese-sourced rare earths from the entire US defense supply chain - all stages from mining to finished product. Hundreds of billions of dollars in annual Pentagon contracts are expected to require compliant sourcing before the deadline, forcing every defense contractor from Lockheed Martin to Northrop Grumman to prove their rare earth heavy supply chain is clean before the clock runs out.

For Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), this means the rare earth materials necessary in everything from the F-35 fighter jets and missile defense systems to military satellites need to be sourced from outside China. The company got a preview of these risks in 2022, when F-35 deliveries were paused after discovering Chinese-sourced alloy in magnets used on the aircraft. But the 2027 DFARS rare earth restrictions go much further, expanding oversight across the entire defense supply chain rather than just a single component.

All this is happening as the Pentagon's demand for rare earth magnets is expected to triple by 2030, reaching approximately 10,000 tons per year. That increased demand is already showing up in production schedules of defense contractors. Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) is now accelerating production of the stealth B-21 Raider bomber, one of the Pentagon's most critical modernization programs, while expanding capacity in its missile and space systems businesses. Each additional aircraft, missile, and satellite ultimately increases demand for the same rare earth materials that REalloys has focused on.

Investment and Professional Team

In March, the company completed a $50 million scaled public offering, directing approximately $40 million to build the largest heavy rare earth metallurgical facility outside China. Just days later, the company appointed Joe Kasper - former Chief of Staff to the US Secretary of Defense - as Chairman of the Advisory Board. He will advise board members including retired four-star US Army General and foreign policy expert General Jack Keane, and Chairman Steve duMont, who serves as Chairman of GM Defense.

And all of that happened in a single month - capital, facilities, and former Chief of Staff to the Pentagon leading the advisory board. It appears that while REalloys has been building for this moment for years, it's arriving just in time, with the DFARS deadline just 9 months away.

Lessons from the Antimony Shock

Antimony wasn't a mineral that kept anyone awake at night before 2024. But when China cut off exports, prices jumped 2,600%, and suddenly every domestic weapons manufacturer realized they were holding by a single thread connecting them to Beijing.

The problem is, heavy rare earths make antimony look small by comparison. Dysprosium and terbium are woven through every major weapon system in the US arsenal, including drone navigation, missile guidance, and fighter jet engines operating at extreme temperatures. Meanwhile, defense contractors are actively ramping up weapons production and driving demand for these critical resources. General Dynamics' (NYSE: GD) Virginia-class propulsion is specifically named in the Pentagon's new rare earth magnet procurement rules, along with the NdFeB and samarium-cobalt magnets at the center of this entire supply chain effort, and the Navy has been transitioning to permanent magnet motors on later submarines for quieter, stealthier operation.

And China doesn't just control most of the ore - they also control the refining, which means they have the same leverage over rare earths that they just showed they're willing to use with antimony.

With the DFARS deadline now just months away, defense contractors could soon be cut off from Chinese rare earths across their entire supply chain. Most of them still don't have domestic sources ready. REalloys has built the answer while everyone else is just now realizing how severe the problem is. The company has metallurgical expertise and operating partners. As 2027 approaches and the supply squeeze happens, that's the position that could reshape the entire domestic rare earth production landscape.