Russian Refinery Attacks Push Central Asia into Energy Crisis

Continuous Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have immediately thrown Central Asian nations into energy turmoil, highlighting years of short-term policy decisions that have left the region without coordinated energy strategies and sufficient diversification to withstand major disruptions.

Just this week, Ukrainian drones forced the shutdown of the Omsk oil refinery—one of Russia's largest processing facilities with an annual capacity of nearly 22 million tons of crude oil—prompting Central Asian governments, particularly Kyrgyzstan, to declare states of emergency.

Although the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine may be distant, experts suggest that a lack of policy vision has brought the conflict to the region's doorstep as Russian supply lines dried up, costs soared, and distribution challenges became reality.

Policy Vision Deficit

"Governments in Central Asia have always planned short-term because of the logic of authoritarian rule," said Luca Anceschi, professor of Central Asian Studies at the University of Glasgow. "They are obsessed with protecting power, which means they are primarily concerned with what could remove them from office. They always try to anticipate political threats, so they don't really think long-term...It's an export-focused policy rather than domestic demand. They worry about how to sell resources, not how to use them best," he added.

Dependence on Russian oil in Central Asia varies by country, but the main products sought are refined Russian petroleum products, such as gasoline and diesel fuel.

Landlocked, non-oil-producing countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan rely on Russia for nearly their entire supply of petroleum products. But even energy-rich Uzbekistan heavily depends on Russia for refined fuel due to limited regional refining capacity.

Therefore, disruptions at Russian refineries have immediately spread throughout the region, driving fuel prices higher and causing shortages.

Long-Term Failures

"This crisis has exposed the long-term failure in diversifying national energy systems," said Kyrgyzstani economist Tolenbek Abdyrov.

"We have been saying this for a long time—diversification is necessary; fuel should also be imported from other countries; more processing mechanisms should be built here; crude oil should be imported and refined locally so we can produce our own fuel," he said.

The current disruption has revived discussion about a regional fuel system—a concept energy experts have proposed multiple times since Central Asian countries gained independence from Moscow. This concept envisions Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan supplying crude oil, Uzbekistan's refineries processing portions of it, and refined products moving throughout the region via coordinated transport networks.

Anceschi noted that this model is technically feasible but requires long-term coordination that the region has historically lacked.

Emergency Measures

To cope with the situation, several governments are attempting to act quickly.

In Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan's First Deputy Prime Minister Daniyar Amangeldiev announced preliminary agreements with Beijing and Minsk for aviation fuel and diesel supplies.

But even when announced supplies arrive, they will only cover about 3% of Kyrgyzstan's annual diesel consumption. Kyrgyzstan consumes approximately 2 million tons of fuel annually, with about 95% of this supply coming from Russia.

Tajikistan has also turned to emergency diplomacy. Habibullo Nazarzoda, head of Tajikistan's Civil Aviation Agency, stated that negotiations are underway with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and other countries to secure aviation fuel supplies.

"Currently, we are gathering information on where fuel is available so we can contract and arrange imports," he said.

Uzbekistan has also accelerated discussions with alternative suppliers as gasoline and diesel imports decreased and domestic prices surged sharply.

On July 7, President Shavkat Mirziyoev's visit to Belarus highlighted the region's emergency response, with Uzbekistan expected to seek additional fuel supplies from Minsk, similar efforts by Kyrgyzstan.

Need for Substantial Diversification

Experts suggest that diversification needs to include multiple suppliers, including Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, rather than simply replacing dependence on Russia with dependence on another external partner, such as Iran or China.

At the same time, they add that Central Asian governments need to invest more in domestic options, particularly hydropower in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Potential Turning Point

Amid shortages, Anceschi warns of another danger looming—one that authoritarian leaders in Central Asia fear most.

"When you have sudden energy price increases and economies remain heavily dependent on carbon, almost every aspect of daily life depends on hydrocarbons," he said. "This creates severe pressure on purchasing power and increases living costs, making people poorer."

This pressure, in turn, creates a potential political challenge for the region's authoritarian governments.

"If this situation continues—and we can't say that it will, but we also can't say that it won't—this could become a turning point for local regimes," Anceschi said.