#OPEC #UAE #ARapXeUt #OPECPlus #DauMo #GiaDau #SanLuongDau #HanNgachSanXuat #VungVinh #EoBienHormuz #beaconasiamedia #bloombergbusinessweekvietnam #bbwvn
1️⃣ MAIN DEVELOPMENTS: UAE officially leaves OPEC from May 1, 2026 after more than 50 years of association, this is a big shock because the UAE is one of the largest oil producers in the bloc and has long disagreed with this decisive output quota to help the UAE freely increase output and maximize profits 
2️⃣ ULTIMATE CAUSES:
• Conflict with Saudi Arabia over production quotas lasted for many years
• UAE has invested heavily to increase capacity to nearly 5 million barrels/day but was "held back" by OPEC 
• Long-term strategy: sell oil as soon as possible before global demand peaks
3️⃣ WHAT IS SAUDI ARABIA DOING:
Saudi Arabia cannot let OPEC lose control, so it is:
• Increase production with OPEC+ countries to prove that the organization is still operating stably
• Reassure the market that supply is still controlled
• Take on the role of “leader” to avoid the domino effect
This is an extremely important strategy because Saudi Arabia is the "pillar of power" of OPEC
4️⃣ BIGGEST RISKS: DOMINO EFFECT
If the UAE succeeds:
• Other countries may leave OPEC
• Output discipline is broken
• OPEC lost control over oil prices
Many experts believe that this could be "the first step of OPEC's weakening".
5️⃣ IMPACT ON OIL PRICES:
Short term:
• Little fluctuation due to the war in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz are influencing the supply 
Long term:
• UAE can add ~1 million barrels/day
• Oil prices are at risk of falling if there is excess supply 
The market can shift from "price control" to "output competition"
6️⃣ GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS:
• Iran - Middle East tensions
• Strait of Hormuz (world's largest oil transportation choke point)
• UAE wants to reduce dependence and increase strategic autonomy
This is not just an economic story but a restructuring of global energy power
7️⃣ IN-DEPTH CONCLUSION:
• UAE leaving OPEC = direct blow to Saudi power
• Saudi Arabia is forced to “appease + maintain stability
