#OPEC #DauTho #GiaDau #Brent #WTI #XangDau #ThiTruongNangLuong #GiaoDichHangHoa #CongNgheDauKhi
A major shock is shaking the entire global energy market. OPEC's crude oil production has dropped to only about 20.55 million barrels per day in April 2026, the lowest level since 1990. (Lao Dong)
It is worth noting that just a few weeks ago, OPEC production was at nearly 29.6 million barrels per day. The drop of more than 9 million barrels per day is equivalent to nearly 30 percent of the bloc's supply, creating one of the sharpest supply shocks in decades.
SUMMARY TABLE OF OUTPUT VARIATIONS
| Target | Output level |
|---|---:|
| Nearest peak | 29.6 million barrels/day |
| April 2026 | 20.55 million barrels/day |
| Absolute reduction | 9.05 million barrels/day |
| Reduction rate | ~30.6% |
| Previous lowest mark | 1990 |
THE CAUSE OF OPEC'S STRONG DECLINE
1️⃣ Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East
Exploitation, transportation and export activities through the Strait of Hormuz were seriously disrupted.
2️⃣ US oil exports increased sharply
United States took advantage of high prices to boost exports, partially compensating for OPEC's shortfall.
3️⃣ International Energy Agency releases strategic reserves
Reserve oil supplies were released to help cool the market.
4️⃣ China reduces imports
The world's second largest economy temporarily limits storage, reducing demand pressure.
5️⃣ Oil refineries reduce capacity
Demand for gasoline, diesel andAviation fuel slowdown causes factories to operate cautiously.
IMPACT ON OIL PRICES
| Type of oil | Reference price range |
|---|---:|
| Brent Crude | about 2,600,000 to 2,860,000 VND/barrel |
| West Texas Intermediate | about 2,470,000 to 2,730,000 VND/barrel |
Conversion for reference is about 26,000 VND/USD. Actual prices fluctuate with each trading session.
⚔️ WHO IS BENEFITING WHEN OPEC IS WEAK
United States
The shale oil industry has the opportunity to gain more global market share.
Brazil
Increase exports from deepwater mines.
Canada
Stabilize supply to the North American market.
Guyana
Continue to emerge as a new oil power.
GLOBAL ECONOMIC IMPACT
Rising fuel prices cause inflationary pressure
Logistics and transportation costs are escalating
Central banks find it difficult to reduce interest rates
The risk of global economic growth slowing down
️ WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT
If Middle East tensions persist, oil prices could remain at high levels. On the contrary, if supply from the US and non-OPEC countries continues to increase sharply, OPEC's control of the market will weaken significantly.
CONCLUSION
OPEC is going through a historic period where output has fallen to its lowest level in 36 years. This is not just a story about oil but also a signal that the world's energy balance of power is shifting rapidly. Whoever controls supply will control prices, inflation and even economic growth
