#EnergyMarketGhost, #DOJ, #CFTC, #Oil, #Iran, #Hormuz, #Trump, #InsiderTrading, #OilTrading, #OilGasTechnology
When war becomes an opportunity to earn tens of trillions of dong in just a few minutes, the biggest question is no longer who wins on the battlefield, but who knows everything in advance.
In 2026, the United States Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission opened a shocking investigation into more than 2.65 billion USD, equivalent to about 68,900 billion VND, bet on oil prices right before extremely sensitive military and diplomatic statements.
This is not just a financial investigation. This is a hunt for "ghosts" who may have used confidential information to manipulate the global energy market.
The US - Israel - Iran war shook the oil market
On February 28, 2026, a large-scale military campaign between the US, Israel and Iran broke out. Iran responded by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route that transports more than 20% of the world's oil and LNG.
Brent Crude Oil price increased from about 1,950,000 VND/barrel to more than 3,276,000 VND/barrel in just a few weeks.
Oil price fluctuations follow major events
Date Event Oil price reaction
February 28, 2026 US air strikes on Iran +10%
March 4, 2026 Iran blocks Hormuz +35%
March 23, 2026 Trump postpones attack -11%
April 7, 2026 14-day ceasefire -15%
April 17, 2026 Iran opens Hormuz -11%
April 21, 2026 Ceasefire extension -6%
4 "Miraculous" transactions worth nearly 69,000 billion VND
March 23, 2026 — Short sale worth 13,000 billioncopper
Just 15 minutes before Donald Trump announced a postponement of the attack on Iran, a mysterious organization short-sold about $500 million in oil.
Convert about 13,000 billion VND.
️ April 7, 2026 — Biggest bet in history
A position worth 960 million USD, equivalent to 24,960 billion VND, was opened before the ceasefire was announced.
April 17, 2026 — Bet on Hormuz opening
The investment of 760 million USD, equivalent to 19,760 billion VND, appeared before the announcement from Iran.
April 21, 2026 — Last transaction
The bet of 430 million USD, equivalent to 11,180 billion VND, was made before the ceasefire was extended indefinitely.
Total scale of questionable transactions
Date Value USD Conversion VND
March 23, 2026 500 million USD 13,000 billion VND
April 7, 2026 960 million USD 24,960 billion VND
April 17, 2026 760 million USD 19,760 billion VND
April 21, 2026 430 million USD 11,180 billion VND
Total 2.65 billion USD 68,900 billion VND
️ How DOJ and CFTC investigate
The CFTC requests Tag 50 data from exchanges like CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange to determine exactly who entered the order.
Every transaction leaves a trace:
* Account
* Trading algorithm
* IP address
* Brokerage company
* Capital source
If these accounts involve government officials or relatives, the legal consequences will be extremely serious.
⚖️ Legal framework may be applied
* 17 C.F.R. § 180.1
* STOCK Act
*Dodd-Frank anti-market manipulation regulations
Penalties may include:
* Confiscation of all profits
* The fine is many times the amount of profit
* Criminal prosecution
*Federal prison sentence
Polymarket and prediction markets
Polymarket became the focus because it allowed users to bet on war, political and economic events.
A number of recent cases show that soldiers and officials used classified information to place bets and profited hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Global economic impact
✈️ Aviation
Rising fuel prices caused global ticket prices to escalate sharply.
Sea transportation
About 1,600 ships are stuck around Hormuz.
Agriculture
Fertilizer and food prices increased.
Central Bank
Federal Reserve System and Reserve Bank of Australia are under pressure to increase interest rates.
Compare the economy before and after the crisis
Pre-war Index Crisis peak
Brent oil price 1,950,000 VND/barrel 3,276,000 VND/barrel
US gasoline price is 80,600 VND/gallon and 104,000 VND/gallon
Australian inflation 3.2% 4.6%
The US Congress reacted strongly
The PREDICT Act 2026 proposes to prohibit:
* President
* Vice President
* Member of Parliament
* Senior officials
Participate in prediction or betting markets related to public policy.
Future scenario
✅ If the US and Iran sign an agreement
* Hormuz works normally
* Oil price may fall below 2,600,000 VND/barrel
* Inflation pressure decreased sharply
❌ If negotiations fail
* Oil price may exceed 3,900,000 VND/barrel
* Global stock markets shook violently
* The risk of recession increases
The biggest significance of the incident
The problem is not just the profit of tens of trillions of dong.
What's more worrying is:
* War information may be leaked
* DecisionPolicies are turned into money-making tools
* Public confidence in the market is shaken
Conclusion
The DOJ and CFTC investigation could become the largest insider trading case in the history of world commodity markets.
If the allegations are proven, this will be proof that in the era of real-time data, confidential information is more valuable than gold, and with just a few minutes' advance knowledge, a small group can earn nearly 69,000 billion VND.
The war not only took place in the deserts of the Middle East, but also took place silently on trading screens in New York, Chicago and London.
#OilPrice, #Hormuz, #Polymarket, #InsiderTrading, #Trump, #IranWar, #EnergyMarket, #CFTC, #DOJ, #OilTechnology
