#XiCynping #DonaldTrump #USChina #TradeWar #Thucydides Trap #China #United States #Geopolitics #Global Economy #TimKiemTop
Can just one sentence from Mr. Xi Jinping cause the entire financial world to shake and put trillions of dollars in global capitalization on red alert?
In the context of a solemn welcoming ceremony in Beijing, President Xi Jinping is said to have reiterated the concept of the "Thucydides Trap", a famous term describing the risk of war when a rising power challenges the position of the dominant power. Opposite him is Donald Trump, who is pursuing a tough policy with China on trade, technology and geopolitics.
What is Thucydides trap?
This concept was popularized by Graham Allison. According to his research, out of 16 historical cases where an emerging power challenged an existing power, 12 ended in war.
Historical statistics
Value Index
Case study 16
Ends in war 12
Probability of conflict 75%
Cases where war can be avoided 4
Why is this warning especially important?
The US-China relationship is not only a trade competition but also a comprehensive race
• AI artificial intelligence
• Advanced semiconductor chip
• National defense and navy
• Taiwan and the East Sea
• Global supply chain
• USD and international payment system
The scale of the two superpowers
2026 US China Index
Nominal GDP ~31,000,000 billion VND ~25,000,000 billion VND
Defense spending ~22,000,000 billion VND ~8,500,000 billion VND
Foreign exchange reserves ~90,000 billion VND ~90,000,000 billion VND
Bilateral trade turnover ~17,500,000 billion VND ~17,500,000 billion VND
⚠️ Red lines can trigger crises
1. Taiwan issue
2. Control of semiconductor technology
3. Large-scale trade embargo
4. Military collision in the East Sea
5. Completely separate the supply chain
If the conflict escalates,
