#Trump #Iran #Hormuz #GiaDau #WTI #Brent #LNG #OPEC #BP #SaudiAramco #TotalEnergies #ExxonMobil #NangLuong #CongNgheDauKhi
Just a few hours between rumors of the US joining hands with Iran and a new series of air strikes, oil prices reversed wildly, making the whole world fear an energy shock bigger than 2022.
The global oil market is entering a period of rare chaos when mixed signals from Donald Trump, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz cause oil prices to continuously "revolve" with extremely large amplitudes.
Initially, the market expected the US and Iran to reach a framework agreement to help reduce Middle East tensions, causing Brent oil to plummet nearly 6%. But just a few hours later, new US air strikes on southern Iran pushed oil prices back up to close to $100/barrel.
GLOBAL ENERGY PRICES
Commodities Current Prices Fluctuations
WTI Crude 91.87 USD/barrel, down 2.15%
Brent Crude 97.97 USD/barrel, down 1.62%
Murban Crude 95.05 USD/barrel, up 2.40%
Natural Gas 2,885 USD, down 0.31%
HORMUZ IS BECOME A “BODY OF LIFE AND DEATH”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared that the Strait of Hormuz "must be opened at all costs", showing that Washington considers this a vital strategic priority.
Meanwhile, Tehran is said to require at least 30 days after the diplomatic agreement to clear the mines and completely restore the oil and gas transport flow.
IMPORTANCE OF HORMUZ
Scale Index
About 20 million barrels of oil pass through Hormuz every day
The proportion of global oil dependent on Hormuz is close20%
Qatar's LNG exports through Hormuz are extremely large to Asia and Europe
️ SUPER EL NINO MAKES WORLD LNG MORE CRISIS
Not only war, extreme weather is also creating huge pressure on global energy.
Experts warn that a “Super Niño” with sea surface temperatures rising above 2 degrees Celsius could cause electricity and LNG demand to explode in China, Japan and India.
LNG PRICES ARE BEING STRONGLY ATTRACTIVE BY ASIA
LNG Price Area
Asia JKM above 18 USD/MMBtu
Europe is about 16.4 USD/MMBtu
This causes LNG ships to start turning around from Europe to Asia for more attractive profits
A SERIES OF EVENTS SHAKES THE MARKET
Impact Events
Oil tanker explosion in Oman raises transport security concerns
Ukraine attacked Novorossiysk port, disrupting Russian oil exports
Qatar extends force majeure LNG Europe lacks supply
Coal mine accident in China coking coal prices increased sharply
Saudi Aramco withdraws from Malaysia, causing regional strategic surprise
In particular, Saudi Aramco decided to withdraw from its oil refining and petrochemical joint venture worth about 182 trillion VND in Malaysia after 8 years of cooperation with Petronas, making investors extremely surprised.
COMPARISON OF ENERGY BIGGESTS
New Move Group
BP is in crisis of leadership
TotalEnergies wants to sell German wind power assets
ExxonMobil continues to expand shale oil
Saudi Aramco withdrew from the Malaysian project
QatarEnergy cuts more LNG to Europe
EUROPE IS IN A DIFFICULT POSITION
While LNG is drawn to Asia, Europe faces the risk of energy shortage due to the prolonged Iran and Russia conflict.
PediatricMany analysts believe that if Hormuz is disrupted for a long time, oil prices could exceed 100 USD/barrel for a long time.
OIL IS NO LONGER DEPENDING ONLY ON OPEC
The market is currently dominated by
Factor Level of influence
Trump policy is extremely strong
The Iran war is extremely strong
Hormuz survives
El Niño gradually increases
Asian LNG is very strong
Russia Ukraine lasts
One tweet from Trump can now evaporate tens of billions of dollars in global energy capital in just a few hours, and the scariest thing is that no one knows how far the Middle East will escalate.
#Trump #Iran #Hormuz #GiaDau #OilPrice #LNG #SaudiAramco #QatarEnergy #TotalEnergies #ExxonMobil #BP #NangLuong #KinhTeTheGioi #CongNgheDauKhi
