#Azerbaijan #Georgia #Russia #Gazprom #NangLuong #Caucasus #DauKhi #AnNinhNangLuong #KhiDot #DiaChinhTri
If Georgia really trades control of gas infrastructure for 20 years to maintain its role as a trade transit, is this country putting itself in a new round of energy dependence from Russia?
A 20-year energy deal recently signed between Azerbaijan and Georgia is sparking fierce controversy in the Caucasus region. What is notable is not the contract term but the fact that most of the details have not yet been publicly announced.
In the context of increasingly fierce geopolitical competition between Europe, Russia, Türkiye and the Caucasus countries, many experts worry that Georgia may be trading part of its energy independence to maintain its strategic transit position between Asia and Europe.
Current global energy prices
Commodity Price
WTI Crude 87.36 USD/barrel
Brent Crude 91.12 USD/barrel
Murban Crude 90.05 USD/barrel
Natural Gas 3,290 USD/MMBtu
The difference between Brent and WTI is currently about 3.76 USD/barrel, showing that the market still maintains a premium for North Sea oil amid increasing geopolitical risks.
What is making analysts worried?
According to published information, the two sides have signed
✓ The electricity and power transmission cooperation framework lasts 20 years
✓ Extend the gas purchase contract from 2003 for another 20 years
✓ Restore the Baku – Tbilisi passenger railway
✓ Complete practicestrategic transport nest Baku – Tbilisi – Kars
The problem is that the most important provisions have not yet been announced.
Many analysts believe that Georgia may have ceded part of the right to use the capacity of the strategic gas route Baku - Tbilisi - Erzurum to Azerbaijan for the next two decades.
The data is sending worrying signals
2025 Index Volatility
Gas imported from Azerbaijan Reduced by 6%
Gas imported from Russia Increases 23%
Gazprom gas supply to Georgia Increases 40.4%
It is worth noting that Russian gas is priced higher than supplies from Azerbaijan.
Normally countries will prioritize cheaper supplies to reduce national energy costs. However, the trend in Georgia is going in the opposite direction.
Gazprom is back?
Many economic experts in Georgia believe that this is not a coincidence.
If more capacity of the modern Baku – Tbilisi – Erzurum pipeline is devoted to exports to Europe, Georgia may be forced to use an older Soviet-era pipeline system to receive gas.
As energy demand continues to increase in the future, the most viable option may turn out to be to import more gas from Russia through Gazprom.
This is what worries many analysts.
The real war is not about gas
At first glance this is an energy story.
But deeper than that is the battle for control of the Asia-Europe transport corridors.
Currently, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Türkiye are all promoting new trade routes.
Some new transport corridors risk bypassing Georgia completely.
If that happens, Tbilisi could lose billions of dollars in revenue from logistics and transit.
That's why many experts believe that the Georgian government is prioritizing geopolitical position over energy security.
New competitive map in the Caucasus
Country Main target
Azerbaijan Increases gas exports to Europe
Georgia Plays a regional transit role
Armenia Opens connection with EU
Türkiye Becomes Asia-Europe logistics center
Russia Maintains Energy Influence in the Caucasus
Impact on Europe
The European Union is trying to reduce dependence on Russian energy from 2022.
Azerbaijan is considered one of the important alternative sources of supply.
However, if Georgia gradually loses control of its transit infrastructure or becomes more dependent on Russian gas sources, Europe's entire supply diversification strategy could face new risks.
Energy market perspective
Azerbaijan is winning big by expanding its gas export influence.
Georgia maintains its position on the transportation map but faces risks of energy dependence.
Russia shows signs of regaining influence through Gazprom.
Europe continues to need Caucasian gas to reduce dependence on Moscow.
As Brent oil remains above 91 USD/barrel and many experts warn that the risk of energy price shock is not over, any decades-long gas agreement could have an impact far beyond a single country.
The biggest question right now is not what Georgia gets from the agreement with Azerbaijan, butis what they agreed to give up to get it.
#DauMo #KhiDot #Gazprom #Azerbaijan #Georgia #Russia #Caucasus #AnNinhNangLuong #DiaChinhTri #NangLuongToanCau #WTI #Brent #NaturalGas #OilMarket #EnergySecurity #EuropeEnergy #TransitCorridor #Geopolitics #OilPrice #NangLuong2026
