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A country with more than 11 million people but almost running out of fuel and losing electricity up to 22 hours a day, is this just an energy crisis or a sign of Cuba's largest regime crisis in decades?
Cuba is going through one of the most difficult periods since the "Special Period" in the 1990s. The power system continuously collapsed, fuel sources were almost exhausted, traffic stagnated, production declined and a wave of social discontent began to appear in many areas of Havana.
The direct cause comes from Cuba losing its strategic oil source from Venezuela after the political upheavals in early 2026. At the same time, the Donald Trump administration implemented a policy of tightening energy with Cuba through measures to put pressure on countries or businesses transporting oil to this island nation.
According to many international reports, Cuba needs about 100,000 barrels of oil per day to operate the national power grid, transportation and basic economic activities. However, domestic output only meets about 40%.
CUBA ENERGY BALANCE SHEET
Category Data
Daily oil demand About 100,000 barrels
Domestic production About 40,000 barrels
Autonomy rate About 40%
Import dependence About 60%
Power outage time in many areas Up to 20 - 22 hours per day
Main supply firstc here Venezuela
WHEN THE OIL DISAPPEARS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM STARTS TO COLLAPSE
The crisis is not just about electricity shortages.
When fuel runs out, a series of sectors are affected.
Power plant reduced capacity
Public buses must reduce trips
The hospital has difficulty operating
Garbage collection truck stopped working
Agricultural harvests were delayed
Tourism continues to weaken
The United Nations has warned that fuel shortages are directly threatening clean water systems, health care and food security in Cuba.
DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACT
Field Level of influence
Electricity Very serious
Serious Travel
Serious Agriculture
High Health
High Traffic
High Logistics
High public service
A SERIES OF PROTESTS APPEARED
In Havana, many people took to the streets to protest the prolonged power outage.
The protests saw people banging pots and pans, burning trash and demanding the government restore electricity. Some areas only hope to have a few hours of electricity per day for normal activities.
Notably, this is a level of social discontent rarely seen in Cuba in recent years.
THE US IS USING ENERGY AS A GEOPOLITICAL WEAPON
Many experts believe that Washington is applying the same pressure model it used on Iran and Venezuela.
Instead of direct military intervention, controlling fuel sources caused the entire Cuban economy to be strangled from within.
According to Reuters and international organizations, most traditional oil suppliers are now concernedrisk of sanctions if continuing to export oil to Cuba.
ENERGY DEPENDENT COMPARISON
Country Level of dependence on oil imports
Cuba Very high
Venezuela Low
Mexican Average
US Much lower thanks to large domestic output
ECONOMIC DAMAGE IS DIFFICULT TO MEASURE
If we take the international oil price around 90 USD per barrel, the oil shortage is about 60,000 barrels per day, equivalent to more than:
About 5.4 million USD per day
About 135 million VND per hour
More than 4,000 billion VND per month converted at current oil prices
This figure does not include losses from tourism, manufacturing, agriculture and investment decline.
RUSSIA BECAME THE LAST LIFESTYLE
While many supplies were cut, Russia sent ships carrying about 100,000 tons of oil to Cuba.
This amount of oil is estimated to be only enough to support Cuba's energy needs for nearly two weeks if used at normal levels.
This shows that even with emergency support, Cuba still does not have a long-term solution to replace supplies from Venezuela.
⚠️ THE MOST WORRITING THING IS NOT THE LACK OF OIL
The most worrying thing is that Cuba is falling into a spiral that includes:
Power outage → reduced production → shortage of goods → inflation → social dissatisfaction → decline in investment → continued lack of foreign currency to import fuel.
If this spiral lasts for many more months, Cuba could face the most serious economic and social crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
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References from Reuters, The Guardian, Washington Post, United Nations and international reports on the Cuban energy crisis in 2026.