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If US crude oil inventories continue to decline sharply for many consecutive weeks but oil prices still do not break out, is the market preparing for a major supply and demand shock that most investors have not yet realized?
The American Petroleum Institute API has just released new data showing that commercial crude oil inventories in the US decreased by 6.75 million barrels in the week ending May 29. This is a sharp decrease nearly double the market forecast of 3.6 million barrels.
Notably, this was the next week of deep decline after US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels in the previous week.
This information immediately attracted the attention of global energy traders because oil inventories are always considered one of the most important indicators reflecting the actual balance of supply and demand.
COMPARATIVE TABLE OF US CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES
Data Indicators
The latest weekly decrease was 6.75 million barrels
Last week's decrease was 2.8 million barrels
Market forecast of 3.6 million barrels
Difference compared to forecast An additional decrease of 3.15 million barrels
Change from the beginning of 2026 Increase by about 16 million barrels
Although last week's data was very positive for oil prices, a paradox still exists.
From the beginning of the year until now, total US crude oil inventories have increased by about 16 million barrels.
This shows that recent reductions have only partially offset previously accumulated inventories.
WHY INVENTORY DECREASESSTRONG?
Experts say there are three main causes.
Firstly, the demand for oil refining increases sharply as the peak driving season in the US is approaching.
Second, US crude oil exports continue to remain high thanks to demand from Europe and Asia.
Third, mining output in some areas has not increased fast enough to offset consumption.
TABLE OF FACTORS AFFECTING OIL PRICES
Impact Factor
Inventories decreased sharply Positive
US Summer Demand Positive
OPEC+ increases production Negative
Fears of economic recession Negative
Geopolitical tensions Positive
Strong USD Negative
THE SPR STRATEGIC RESERVE CONTINUES TO DECREASE
Another notable point is that the US is still using the SPR Strategic Petroleum Reserve to reduce energy price pressure.
SPR has been an extremely important tool in global energy crises.
However, the continuous withdrawal of oil from reserves also raises debates about the ability to respond if a new supply crisis arises.
COMPARE US WITH OIL AND GAS POWERS
Country Role
America The world's largest oil producer
Saudi Arabia Leader of OPEC
Russia Leading energy exporter
Canada Stable supply North America
UAE Middle East Energy Hub
While the US focuses on shale oil, Saudi Arabia and Russia are still two competitors that directly affect the global supply and demand balance.
Any decision to increase or decrease production from OPEC+ could completely change the positive impact of reducing oil inventories in the US.
WHERE CAN OIL PRICES GO?
PediatricMany analysts believe that if inventories continue to decrease by over 5 million barrels per week next month, Brent oil prices could completely return to the range of 2,000,000 to 2,200,000 VND per barrel.
On the contrary, if OPEC+ continues to open the output valve more strongly than expected, oil prices may be under pressure to adjust despite falling inventories in the US.
WHAT INVESTORS NEED TO WATCH
✔ API and EIA weekly oil inventory reports
✔ OPEC+ output policy
✔ US crude oil export activities
✔ China's situation and energy consumption needs
✔ Geopolitical hot spots in the Middle East
The drop of 6.75 million barrels of oil in one week is a very notable signal. However, the oil market is not just looking at one number. The battle between consumption demand, OPEC+ output, the global economy and geopolitics is still deciding the next direction of world energy prices.
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