#OilPrice #China #Oil #Hormuz #Energy #GlobalEconomy #OilGas #Petroleum #OilMarket #TimKiemTop
Would many people be shocked to know that China is the country that has kept world oil prices from exceeding 150 USD/barrel even though global supply has lost tens of millions of barrels per day?
The 2026 oil crisis is creating a paradox rarely seen in the history of the world energy industry.
Normally, when about 20% of global oil supply is disrupted, oil prices explode sharply. However, after more than 3 months of tension in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, Brent oil is still fluctuating around below 100 USD/barrel instead of jumping to the mark of 120 USD, 150 USD or even 200 USD as many experts have warned.
The biggest contributor to the "cooling down" of the market is China.
What China Did
Market data shows that China's oil imports have dropped sharply in recent months.
Table of fluctuations in China's oil imports
Oil Import Phase
Same period in 2025: About 13 million barrels/day
April 2026 About 9.4 million barrels/day
May 2026 Only 6.4 - 8 million barrels/day left
The maximum reduction is 4-5 million barrels/day
This number is roughly equivalent to the oil output of an energy superpower.
When China reduced its oil purchases, global demand pressure decreased sharply, helping the market absorb some of the shock of supply loss from the Middle East.
Beijing's "Secret Weapon".
Gender divisionAnalysts say that China has been preparing for this situation for a long time.
Instead of continuing to import large volumes, Beijing is said to be:
✅ Withdraw oil from strategic reserves
✅ Reduce oil filtration capacity
✅ Limit fuel exports
✅ Prioritize energy security instead of profit
✅ Take advantage of electric vehicle networks and renewable energy to reduce oil dependence
In other words, China is using oil accumulated over many years to "buy time" for the economy.
Why This Is Bad News For The Market
What worries experts is that this strategy cannot last forever.
According to many energy analysis organizations, the world's oil reserves are continuously decreasing.
Warning signals
Condition Factor
US oil inventories Lowest since 2004
US SPR is continuing to be withdrawn
Middle East supply dropped sharply
Hormuz Not working properly yet
Global inventories are continuously decreasing
That means that when China returns to normal oil purchases, the market could see a new, very strong price increase.
Who's Benefiting?
The group that benefits the most
Russia
Brazil
America
Oil exporting countries outside the Middle East
These producers are selling oil at higher prices while supply from the Gulf has decreased significantly.
The group is under pressure
❌ Europe
❌ Japan
❌ Korea
❌ Economies depend on energy imports
These countries are unlikely to be able to completely replace Middle Eastern oil sources if the crisis lasts.
The Electric Vehicle Game Suddenly Takes Effect
One of the reasons why Trung QuSnails are more resilient than expected because they have invested heavily in:
Electric vehicle
Electrified railway
☀️ Solar power
️ Wind power
Clean energy infrastructure
As a result, oil demand in the economy increased significantly slower than in the previous period.
Scenario From Now To The End Of 2026
Expected Brent Price Scenario
Hormuz gradually recovered to 85 - 100 USD/barrel
China continues to reduce purchases by 90 - 110 USD/barrel
China buys back strongly at 120 - 150 USD/barrel
Crisis escalates to over 150 USD/barrel
Based on current data, the most important factor is no longer supply but China's decision on when to return to the international oil market.
When the world's second-largest economy starts buying several million barrels of oil a day again, the entire supply-demand balance could reverse in just a few weeks.
A fact worth pondering is that during the biggest oil crisis in many years, what kept oil prices from increasing shockingly was not oil-producing countries, but China's temporary suspension of purchasing oil on a huge scale.
#OilPrice #China #Hormuz #Oil #Energy #Economy #Russia #USA #Brazil #ElectricVehicles #RenewableEnergy #OilMarket #TimKiemTop #CongHeadDauKhi #Petroleum
