Global Oil Market Enters Dangerous Territory as Hormuz Closure Extends Beyond Three Months
The global energy market is experiencing one of its most tense periods since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 has created immense pressure on global oil supply chains, driving crude prices higher and raising concerns about a new wave of inflation.
With over 21% of global oil flow disrupted and Brent prices surpassing $107 per barrel, the world may be facing an oil shock even larger than that of 2022. This situation has created significant uncertainty in global markets, with energy prices reaching levels not seen in recent years.
Current Global Oil Prices
| Oil Type | Current Price |
|---|---|
| Brent | 2,787,000 VND/barrel |
| WTI | 2,672,000 VND/barrel |
| Dubai | 2,740,000 VND/barrel |
| Murban | 2,810,000 VND/barrel |
| Arab Light | 2,753,000 VND/barrel |
| Urals | 2,064,000 VND/barrel |
| OPEC Basket | 2,724,000 VND/barrel |
Reference exchange rate: approximately 26,000 VND/USD
Market Statistics Raise Concerns
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Brent Price (May 2026) | $107.2/barrel |
| Global Oil Demand (2024) | 103.84 million barrels/day |
| Global Production (2024) | 103.4 million barrels/day |
| OPEC+ Cuts | 3.66 million barrels/day |
| OPEC Spare Capacity | 4.6 million barrels/day |
| Oil Affected by Hormuz | Approximately 21 million barrels/day |
Notably, global oil demand has now exceeded actual production. Against the backdrop of OPEC+ maintaining supply control policies, any incident in the Middle East could further drive oil prices upward.
World's Largest Oil-Producing Countries
| Country | Production (2024) |
|---|---|
| United States | 22.84 million barrels/day |
| Russia | 9.20 million barrels/day |
| Saudi Arabia | 8.97 million barrels/day |
| Canada | 5.92 million barrels/day |
| China | 4.29 million barrels/day |
| Iraq | 4.24 million barrels/day |
| Brazil | 3.40 million barrels/day |
| Iran | 3.37 million barrels/day |
| UAE | 3.30 million barrels/day |
The United States continues to be the world's largest oil producer, with output nearly 2.5 times that of Saudi Arabia. Russia maintains its position as an energy powerhouse despite prolonged sanctions. Saudi Arabia remains the country with the strongest market influence capabilities due to its large spare capacity.
The Critical Importance of the Strait of Hormuz
Each day, approximately 17 to 21 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is crucial for global energy supplies, with several major economies directly dependent on it:
- China
- Japan
- South Korea
- India
- Southeast Asian countries
When this shipping route is disrupted, oil tankers must find longer alternative routes, significantly increasing transportation costs, extending delivery times, and pushing oil prices higher.
OPEC+ Response to the Crisis
Despite the supply crisis, OPEC+ has maintained its overall production cuts of approximately 3.66 million barrels per day. The organization appears reluctant to open the supply taps, indicating a desire to maintain higher oil prices to protect budget revenues.
| Country | Production | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 8.97 mb/d | Compliant |
| Kuwait | 2.42 mb/d | Compliant |
| UAE | 3.30 mb/d | Near target |
| Iraq | 4.24 mb/d | Exceeding quota |
| Nigeria | 1.41 mb/d | Below capacity |
Impact on Vietnam
If Brent prices remain around $107 per barrel for several months, Vietnam could face several challenges:
- Continued upward pressure on domestic gasoline and diesel prices
- Increased logistics costs
- Rising prices for imported food and goods
- Greater inflationary pressure in the second half of 2026
- Direct impact on transportation and fuel-intensive manufacturing businesses
However, oil and gas companies, as well as exploration and energy service providers, could benefit from higher oil price levels.
Possible Future Scenarios
| Scenario | Expected Brent Price |
|---|---|
| Hormuz reopens soon | $85-$95/barrel |
| Prolonged disruption | $100-$120/barrel |
| Conflict escalation | $130-$150/barrel |
| Comprehensive crisis | Above $150/barrel |
Currently, the most decisive factor is no longer consumption demand but geopolitical developments in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for many more months, the global oil market could enter its strongest upward cycle since the 2022 energy crisis.
The Key Question Dividing Investors
If Brent advances to $120/barrel in 2026, will Vietnam face a new wave of inflation, or will this be a golden opportunity for the domestic oil and gas sector to make a significant breakthrough? This question is being hotly debated among investors and analysts as the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve.
The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has created unprecedented challenges for global energy markets, with far-reaching implications for economies worldwide. As the situation develops, all eyes will be on OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical developments, and the resilience of global supply chains in the face of mounting pressure.