Escalating US-Iran Conflict: The Battle for Control of the Strait of Hormuz
The United States has launched a new major offensive against Iran this week, targeting approximately 90 military facilities, including coastal radar stations, anti-ship missile systems, drone launch positions, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command networks, and naval assets around the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran responded within hours with missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, while asserting its continued commitment to enforcing its own maritime regime through this strategic waterway.
For Tehran, control of Hormuz has become the top strategic priority. Western intelligence assessments conclude that Iran is prepared to accept further military escalation rather than relinquish control over commercial traffic through the strait. Despite US attacks on coastal radar stations, anti-ship missile systems, drone launch positions, and IRGC naval assets, Iran has not conceded on the Hormuz issue. Commercial vessels refusing to use the transit routes designated by Tehran are being attacked, and as of this writing, military pressure has not changed this situation.
Iran's Hormuz Control Strategy
Meanwhile, Iran is actively reorganizing and restoring its capabilities. US officials now assess that Tehran has partially replaced its coastal radar network, repaired or damaged hundreds of missiles and launchers during the conflict, and regained access to more than half of its pre-war missile stockpile.
Iran's strategy does not depend on prolonged naval superiority. Periodic attacks on individual commercial vessels are sufficient to increase commercial costs, strengthen Iranian pressure, and maintain instability for Gulf energy exports.
| Component | Iran's Objective | Strategic Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Hormuz Operation | No need to completely close the strait | Maintain capability for periodic attacks on commercial vessels |
| Economic Strategy | Increase insurance costs | Demonstrate that commercial access depends on Tehran's approval |
| Military Strategy | Retain minimum capability | Create uncertainty in Gulf energy exports |
Iran has lost the diplomatic game when Gulf countries and Washington have rejected Iran's proposals to formalize Iranian control over Hormuz. Rather than closing the strait, Iran is attempting to enforce control by targeting specific vessels, and the US military campaign to date has not altered that course.
Economic Impact on GCC Countries
Attention is also focused on Q2 GCC economic data, which will provide clearer indications of the extent of damage, with Saudi Arabia and Oman protected by alternative export routes, while Qatar, Kuwait, and UAE are more affected. Energy producers have benefited from higher prices and to varying degrees have been able to withstand logistical pressures.
| GCC Country | Level of Conflict Exposure | Resilience Capacity |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Low (has alternative routes) | High |
| Oman | Low (has alternative routes) | Medium-High |
| Qatar | High | Medium |
| Kuwait | High | Medium |
| UAE | High | Medium |
Israel's Role in the Conflict
And then there's Israel. Despite the reality that the current US-Iran conflict essentially revolves around Hormuz and who controls it, Iran also knows it has grounds to use Israeli attacks on and occupation of Lebanon as sufficient reason to break the ceasefire. From the beginning, this was part of Tehran's agreement. Israel has not complied. Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon, attacks continue, and the government insists on Hezbollah's dissolution before any withdrawal.
Washington, in contrast, is promoting a political transition in which the Lebanese Armed Forces gradually replace Israeli troops under a June framework. There is no linkage here, and Iran maintains more leverage as long as Israel maintains any degree of influence in Washington.
Netanyahu's Political Challenges
Tens of thousands of Israelis who left border communities with Lebanon have yet to return home and expect the government to ensure Hezbollah cannot attack again. This is a major domestic political issue, and Netanyahu is under pressure to arrange an effective security agreement. The people want to see him clean up his own mess before they return, and currently, they are far from confident.
Netanyahu's domestic position is becoming more complicated. A new poll by Channel 13 shows Yashar party, led by former IDF Chief Gadi Eisenkot, surpassing Likud for the first time, while Eisenkot also leads Netanyahu as the preferred prime minister. Elections are expected at the end of October. The poll results show public support shifting to a security figure who supported the war against Hamas but later broke with Netanyahu over its conduct. In other words, Israelis still prioritize security, but they don't necessarily believe Netanyahu can provide it.
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