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If China continues to reduce imports and limit exports of petroleum products, could the world oil market enter a prolonged cycle of price declines that will cause many oil-exporting countries to struggle?
The global energy market is witnessing a rather surprising development as oil and gasoline prices show signs of cooling down after weeks of strong fluctuations. One of the reasons that analysts are particularly concerned about is the move that is considered a "lock valve" from China, the world's largest crude oil consumer.
For many years, China has always been considered the driving force in global oil demand growth. As long as this country's economy accelerates or decelerates, international oil prices react almost immediately.
However, recently, fuel demand in China is showing signs of slowing down due to weak industrial growth, a difficult real estate market and a faster-than-expected transition to electric vehicles.
HOW CHINA IS IMPACT THE MARKET
Factors affecting oil prices
Reduce importCrude oil negligence reduces global demand
Increase the proportion of electric vehicles Reduce gasoline consumption
Slow industrial growth Reduces diesel demand
High oil inventories Limit additional imports
Export of flexible oil refining products Increase regional supply
When demand from China decreases, the pressure on supply shortages in the world market also decreases. This causes investors to start adjusting their oil price expectations.
COMPARE THE ROLES OF CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES
China and US indicators
Daily oil consumption About 16 million barrels About 20 million barrels
Oil imports Very Large Significantly lower
Impact on oil prices Very strong Very strong
Electric vehicle growth rate Fastest in the world Slower
The big difference is that the United States is now one of the world's largest oil producers, while China is still heavily dependent on imported oil.
WHO IS THE MOST WORRIED?
Countries that depend on oil for their budgets are closely watching developments from China.
If oil demand continues to weaken, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia could face pressure to maintain export revenues.
Meanwhile, major energy importing economies such as India, Japan and Vietnam benefit from low fuel costs.than.
OIL PRICE SCENARIO IN THE NEXT TIME
Expected Brent Price Scenario
Chinese demand recovered strongly to 85 - 95 USD/barrel
Stable growth of 75 - 85 USD/barrel
Consumption continues to weaken at 65 - 75 USD/barrel
Experts say that the decisive factor lies not only in China but also depends on OPEC's output policy, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the global economic growth rate.
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
It is worth noting that China has not announced an official "oil valve" policy. This term is mainly used to describe the decline in import demand and fuel consumption, thereby reducing upward pressure on prices in the international market.
If the electric vehicle trend continues to boom in China and the economy does not recover strongly, oil prices may remain under pressure for many quarters to come. On the contrary, as long as industrial production and transportation activities accelerate again, oil demand will quickly pull the market up.
QUICK SUMMARY
Content Review
China's oil demand is slowing down
World oil prices cool down
Beneficiary countries Vietnam, Japan, India
Countries under pressure Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia
The biggest risk is Middle East geopolitics
Factors to monitor Economic growthleft China
A small change in China's energy demand could change trillions of dollars in global oil and gas trading value. That is why every move from Beijing is always watched by energy investors every hour.
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