After more than 10 years of prolonged decline, Vietnam's oil and gas industry is showing notable signs of change, starting with institutional change and the expectation of clearing the investment chain that has stagnated for many years.
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1️⃣ A decade of losing growth momentum
The period before 2015 was considered a period of strong growth for the oil and gas industry, when oil prices remained high, exploration and exploitation activities were vibrant, and investment capital flows were continuously expanding.
However, the oil price shock of 2015 reversed the entire cycle. During the period 2015–2025, the industry did not fall into a completely "frozen" state, but recorded:
* Lack of new large-scale projects
* Investment activities are more cautious
* Output growth no longer has a breakthrough
Notably, many potential mines are not implemented not because of lack of resources, but because of the lengthy and complicated approval process. This causes the industry's development momentum to clearly decline, leading to a cautious mentality among engineers and investors.
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2️⃣ Institutional bottlenecks and structural factors
One of the most important reasons noted is the multi-layered project approval mechanism, which prolongs implementation time and reduces investment efficiency.
However, besides institutional factors, Vietnam's oil and gas industry also faces structural challenges:
* Reserves in easy-to-exploit mines are gradually decreasing
* More complex geological conditions, declaration costswaterfall increases
* Global oil price fluctuations make investment decisions cautious
These factors combined have created a long cycle of decline, in which institutions are the bottlenecks in speed, while resources and markets determine the scale of development.
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3️⃣ Resolution 81/NQ-CP - signal to unlock policy
On April 3, 2026, the Government issued Resolution 81/NQ-CP, approving directions to amend the Petroleum Law, marking an important shift in industry management thinking.
Notable content includes:
* Simplify the project approval process
* Adjust the contractor selection mechanism
* Develop preferential policies for marginal mines
* Expanding the scope of regulation to the marine energy sector
This orientation is directly linked to Petrovietnam's role in being more proactive in project implementation.
However, it should be noted that this is just a policy-oriented initial step, not an immediate complete change in operational practice.
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4️⃣ Enterprise value chain and activation conditions
If institutional reforms are implemented effectively, the oil and gas business chain can benefit layer by layer:
* PVS: benefit when the EPCI contract is signed
* PVD: increased activity as demand for exploration drilling increases
* PV GAS: long-term benefits from gas and LNG infrastructure development
* PV Power: take advantage of input gas sources for power plants
* BSR: improves efficiency when crude oil input source is stable
However, the actual benefits of businesses still depend on key factorssuch as final investment decisions (FID), project progress and global energy market conditions.
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5️⃣ Human factors and the return of trust
Besides economic indicators, an important decisive factor is the psychology and confidence of the workforce in the industry.
Institutional reform not only aims to remove procedures, but also create new expectations, contributing to retaining high-quality human resources - a core factor in technical industries such as oil and gas.
This change may not produce immediate results, but serves as a foundation for the next development cycle.
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6️⃣ Conclusion
Vietnam's oil and gas industry has not yet entered a clear growth cycle, but initial signs of recovery have appeared, stemming from policy changes and institutional reforms.
After a decade of lack of momentum, 2026 could be seen as the start of a new cycle – not with an immediate boom, but with the gradual clearing of bottlenecks that have accumulated over the years.
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