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Is the collapse of Iran's oil exports opening the door to a new energy shock that will cost the world more?
1. The hottest topic today
The global oil and gas market is under great pressure when Iran's oil exports are said to have fallen to their lowest level in 6 years due to the tightening blockade. This is a development that could change the balance of supply and demand in the Middle East, especially in the context of oil prices still anchored high around 90 to 100 USD per barrel.
2. Outstanding energy prices
Item Latest price Fluctuation
WTI Crude 93.01 USD/barrel, down 3.13%
Brent Crude 95.17 USD/barrel, down 2.70%
Murban Crude 93.40 USD/barrel, down 3.88%
Natural Gas 3,349 USD/MMBtu increased 4.20%
Gasoline 3,043 USD/gallon, down 2.83%
Heating Oil 3,674 USD/gallon, down 4.52%
WTI Midland 93.95 USD/barrel, down 2.94%
OPEC Basket 101.58 USD/barrel, down 2.37%
Urals 86.94 USD/barrel, up 0.20%
Western Canadian Select 83.67 USD/barrel, up 2.78%
LNG Japan Korea Marker 18.82 USD/MMBtu flat
Dutch TTF Natural Gas 16.67 EUR/MWh flat
3. Iranian oil prices still increase even though exports are stifled
Iranian Oil Price Fluctuations
Iran Light delivered to Northwest Europe 95.54 USD/barrel, up 3.50%
Iran Heavy delivered to Northwest Europe 93.64 USD/barrel, up 3.57%
Forozan Blend delivered to Northwest Europe 93.89 USD/barrel, up 3.56%
Iran Light Mediterranean delivery 94.89 USD/barrel, up 3.52%
Iran Heavy delivered to Mediterranean 92.74 USD/barrel, up 3.61%
Soroosh 89.74 USD/barrel increased by 3.73%
4. Middle East oil group and OPEC
Item Price Fluctuations
Arab Light 107.32 USD/barrel, down 0.49%
Arab Extra Light 107.82 USD/barrel, down 0.49%
Arab Heavy 104.22 USD/barrel, down 0.51%
Arab Medium 105.57 USD/barrel, down 0.50%
Kuwait Export Blend 109.92 USD/barrel flat
Basrah Heavy 71.57 USD/barrel, down 0.71%
Basrah Medium 73.67 USD/barrel, down 0.69%
Dubai 95.55 USD/barrel flat
DME Oman 96.49 USD/barrel flat
5. Hot spots to monitor
A sharp decline in Iranian supply could make the market worried about a real oil shortage if regional tensions continue to escalate.
WTI and Brent prices decreased during the session but still stood at high levels, showing that investors are not completely confident in the sustainable cooling scenario.
Natural gas rose more than 4%, reflecting demand for alternative energy remains strong amid geopolitical turmoil in the oil market.
Canadian oil, Mexican oil and some US blends increased in price, showing that cash flow is shifting to supplies outside the Middle East.
6. Hot keywords today
Iran oil exports, blockade, WTI Crude, Brent Crude, OPEC Basket, Natural Gas, LNG Japan Korea Marker, Urals, Arab Light, Kuwait Export, Murban Crude, Middle East oil, supply crisis, oil blockade, global energy market.
7. Quick judgment
Although benchmark oil prices WTI and Brent are adjusting downward in the short term, the big picture has not cooled down. Iran's oil exports plunging to a 6-year low is a dangerous signal because as long as Middle East supply continues to be choked, oil prices willu can reverse very quickly. This is the period when the market not only looks at price charts but also closely follows geopolitics, shipping, sanctions and OPEC's response.
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