Global Oil Market Enters Dangerous Territory as Hormuz Closure Extends Beyond Three Months
The global energy market is experiencing one of its most tense periods since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 has created immense pressure on global oil supply chains, pushing prices sharply higher and raising concerns about a new wave of inflation.
With over 21% of global oil flows disrupted and Brent prices exceeding $107 per barrel, the world faces the question: Is it on the verge of a new oil shock that could surpass 2022 in its impact?
Current Global Oil Prices
| Oil Type | Current Price (VND/barrel) |
|---|---|
| Brent | 2,787,000 |
| WTI | 2,672,000 |
| Dubai | 2,740,000 |
| Murban | 2,810,000 |
| Arab Light | 2,753,000 |
| Urals | 2,064,000 |
| OPEC Basket | 2,724,000 |
Reference exchange rate: approximately 26,000 VND/USD
Market Concerns: Key Indicators
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Brent Price (May 2026) | $107.2/barrel |
| Global Oil Demand (2024) | 103.84 million barrels/day |
| Global Production (2024) | 103.4 million barrels/day |
| OPEC+ Cuts | 3.66 million barrels/day |
| OPEC Spare Capacity | 4.6 million barrels/day |
| Oil Affected by Hormuz | Approximately 21 million barrels/day |
Notably, global oil demand has now outstripped actual production. Against this backdrop, with OPEC+ maintaining its supply control policy, any incident in the Middle East could further escalate oil prices.
World's Largest Oil-Producing Countries
| Country | Production (2024, million barrels/day) |
|---|---|
| United States | 22.84 |
| Russia | 9.20 |
| Saudi Arabia | 8.97 |
| Canada | 5.92 |
| China | 4.29 |
| Iraq | 4.24 |
| Brazil | 3.40 |
| Iran | 3.37 |
| UAE | 3.30 |
The United States continues to be the world's largest oil producer, with output nearly 2.5 times that of Saudi Arabia. Russia maintains its energy superpower status despite prolonged sanctions, while Saudi Arabia retains the strongest market influence due to its large spare capacity.
The Critical Importance of the Strait of Hormuz
Approximately 17 to 21 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily. Economies directly dependent on this route include:
- China
- Japan
- South Korea
- India
- Southeast Asian countries
When this shipping route is disrupted, oil tankers must find longer alternative routes, significantly increasing transportation costs, extending delivery times, and pushing oil prices higher.
OPEC+ Response to the Crisis
Despite the supply crisis, OPEC+ has maintained total cuts of approximately 3.66 million barrels per day.
| Country | Production (million barrels/day) | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 8.97 | Compliant |
| Kuwait | 2.42 | Compliant |
| UAE | 3.30 | Near target |
| Iraq | 4.24 | Exceeded quota |
| Nigeria | 1.41 | Below capacity |
OPEC+'s reluctance to quickly open the supply tap indicates the organization's intention to maintain higher oil prices to protect budget revenues.
Impact on Vietnam
If Brent prices remain around $107/barrel for several months:
- Domestic gasoline and diesel prices may continue to face upward pressure
- Logistics costs will increase
- Prices of imported food and goods will rise
- Inflationary pressure will intensify in the second half of 2026
- Transport and manufacturing businesses that consume large amounts of fuel will be directly affected
However, oil and gas companies and energy service providers may benefit from higher price levels.
Possible Future Scenarios
| Scenario | Expected Brent Price |
|---|---|
| Hormuz reopened soon | $85-$95/barrel |
| Prolonged disruption | $100-$120/barrel |
| Expanded conflict | $130-$150/barrel |
| Comprehensive crisis | Over $150/barrel |
Currently, the most decisive factor is no longer consumption demand but geopolitical developments in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for many more months, the global oil market could enter its strongest price cycle since the 2022 energy crisis.
A Question Intensely Debated Among Investors
If Brent reaches $120/barrel in 2026, will Vietnam face a new wave of inflation, or will this be a golden opportunity for the oil and gas sector to make a breakthrough? The answer depends on how Vietnam manages its energy security, diversifies its supply sources, and balances economic policies in the face of global energy volatility.