Who Will Control Iran's Uranium Program Amidst International Tensions?

Iran's Nuclear Dilemma: Kazakhstan as a Potential Solution for Uranium Storage?

In the context of ongoing negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program, Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium has emerged as one of the most challenging issues to resolve. Following airstrikes by the United States and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimated that Iran possessed 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. While not reaching weapons-grade levels, this material is very close to the 90% enrichment level typically associated with nuclear weapons production.

The Challenge in Nuclear Negotiations

The current dilemma facing negotiators is what will happen to this uranium stockpile within the framework of a broader agreement between Tehran and Washington. In recent weeks, Kazakhstan has been mentioned as a potential third party that could store this uranium.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported last month that Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev was open to the idea of storing Iran's uranium, and Astana subsequently confirmed this willingness. Kazakh Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aibek Smadiyarov stated on June 1: "Many countries, including Kazakhstan, have expressed readiness in a good-faith spirit to provide technical assistance to address the issue, provided that relevant international agreements are reached between all parties involved and the issue moves to the implementation phase."

Kazakhstan: A Reasonable Solution

Kazakhstan possesses strong credentials in the nuclear field. Since 2019, the country has hosted the world's only IAEA-owned low-enriched uranium bank, a 90-ton facility supported by the United States, the European Union, Norway, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Astana also maintains relations with all major parties involved and has a long-standing history of nuclear non-proliferation.

"Kazakhstan is really a very interesting and good option," noted John Roberts, an energy expert at the Atlantic Council. "The country has had a developing nuclear industry and has been involved in building nuclear power plants." However, technical criteria may not be the decisive factor.

Trust Difficulties

The primary obstacle isn't logistical but rather trust issues, according to Ali Vaez, a leading non-proliferation expert and Iran Project director at the International Crisis Group. Tehran is unlikely to view the uranium merely as nuclear material requiring safe storage; it's also a source of power in negotiations. "Given Tehran's deep mistrust of the United States, they would be reluctant to ship out all the material or transfer it in one go," Vaez explained. "They would want to enrich some domestically to maintain leverage and ensure Washington fulfills its part of the agreement."

Risks and Local Reactions

However, accepting Iran's uranium would also carry risks. The IAEA fuel bank at the Ulba Metal Plant in Oskemen is designed to store low-enriched uranium, whereas Iran's uranium enriched to 60% is classified as highly enriched and would require completely different storage and security requirements. "The main concern is how to ensure it is stored safely," said Daulet Asanov, an environmental scientist monitoring industrial risks in Oskemen. "There might be interest from other countries or organizations."

Public reaction could also be sensitive. Oskemen is a city where environmental concerns have already dominated public debate, primarily because residents have endured severe industrial air pollution. Adding a controversial uranium storage facility to this context presents a significant challenge in eastern Kazakhstan, where cancer rates are already much higher than the national average. "The public might react negatively," environmental expert Roman Chestnykh noted. "Even the storage of low-enriched uranium has previously caused public concern."

Kazakhstan: A Trustworthy Partner in the Future?

Proponents of this proposal highlight Kazakhstan's extensive experience in nuclear diplomacy. After the Soviet Union's collapse, Kazakhstan voluntarily relinquished the nuclear weapons on its territory. In 1994, Kazakhstan assisted in transferring approximately 600 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium to the United States in an operation known as Project Sapphire.

In today's global context, if Kazakhstan is chosen to store Iran's uranium, it could enhance the country's international standing. "It would certainly elevate Kazakhstan's profile on the international stage," said Daniel Rosenblum, former U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan (2022-2025), in a recent podcast. "They like to see themselves as a neutral party and sometimes as a mediator."

With the complexity of the situation, Kazakhstan could serve as an intermediate solution, but this would still require significant agreements and trust from all parties involved.