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1️⃣ MAIN DEVELOPMENT: JAPAN IS STILL "OPEN" TO RUSSIAN OIL
An oil tanker from Russia's Sakhalin-2 project is scheduled to dock in Japan, revealing a clear fact:
When there is an energy shortage, countries are willing to flex supply – even from geopolitically sensitive partners.
Notable points:
* Sakhalin-2 is exempted from sanctions
* Japan has shares through Mitsui and Mitsubishi
* Operated by Gazprom
This is not a “normal” transaction, but a strategic exception.
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2️⃣ WHY JAPAN MUST TAKE ACTION? ⚡
Japan is facing 3 major pressures:
1. Extremely high energy dependence
* ~95% of oil imported from the Middle East
2. Regional supply disruption
* Geopolitical tensions disrupt logistics
3. Energy prices fluctuate strongly
* Putting pressure on the economy and inflation
Therefore, Japan's strategy is:
Diversify supply sources + political flexibility
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3️⃣ THE RETURN OF RUSSIAN OIL: WHAT IS THE SIGNAL?
Buying oil from Sakhalin-2 has many meanings:
* Do not completely break sanctions
* But shows that the energy market still needs Russia
* Global oil flows cannot be completely cut off
This reflects:
Energy = vital factor > politics
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4️⃣ JAPAN "PLAY SAFE": MULTI-SOURCES & RELEASING INVENTORY ️
Parallel to Russia and Japan:
* Negotiate increased supply from Saudi Arabia
* Release stockpiles according to IEA's plan
Scale of warehouse discharge:
* Global total: 400 million barrels
* Japan: 80 millionlethargic
* 54 million barrels of crude oil
* 26 million boxes of products
This is one of the largest warehouse releases in modern energy history.
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5️⃣ GLOBAL IMPACT: THE MARKET IS STRESSED LIKE A STRING
This event sends many signals:
Oil market
* Supply remains fragile
* Prices may fluctuate widely
Supply chain
* Reshape shipping routes
* Increased logistics costs
Geopolitics
* Punishment is no longer absolute
* A “strategic exception” appears
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6️⃣ STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE: WHO IS IN CONTROL OF THE GAME?
3 groups are dominating the market:
1. Large producing countries
2. Consuming countries (Japan, EU, China)
3. **Coordinating organization such as IEA
The game is no longer simply supply and demand
➡️ It's about balancing energy security and global politics
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7️⃣ CONCLUSION: THE UNDERSTANDING CRISIS OF THE ENERGY MARKET
Japan's import of oil from Russia shows:
The market is in the following state:
* Local shortage
* High dependency
* Unpredictable fluctuations
And most importantly:
No supply is “completely eliminated” during a crisis
➡️ Russian oil, Middle Eastern oil or LNG will all coexist in an energy ecosystem full of instability but must be balanced.
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#NangLuong #DauMo #Russia #NhatBan #Sakhalin2 #IEA #GiaDau #KinhTeToanCau #AnNinhNangLuong #DiaChinhTri #ThiTruong2026
