#oil #oil_price #energy_crisis #Jeff_Currie #Iran #Europe #OPEC #PVN #Oil_Technology
Is the world approaching an oil shock even more serious than 1973?
1. Warning from Mr. Jeff Currie
Jeff Currie, one of the world's leading experts on commodities, said:
* Global oil inventories are decreasing rapidly.
* Europe may lack physical oil in the coming weeks.
* Supply may not fully recover before December 2027.
* Oil prices can increase exponentially when the market is out of balance.
Most important message:
The problem is not how much oil costs.
The problem is whether there is still oil to buy or not.
2. Why did the situation become serious?
Geopolitical tensions
Iran is increasing pressure in the Strait of Hormuz area.
Hormuz is a transport route for about 20% of global crude oil.
If the shipping channel is interrupted:
* Europe will lack oil first.
* Asia is strongly influenced.
* Energy prices increased dramatically.
Commercial inventories are low
After years of limited investment, increased output is not enough to compensate for global demand.
OPEC+ maintains supply discipline
OPEC and its allies still strictly control output to protect the market.
3. What does it mean that oil prices may increase “non-linearly”.
Normally, oil prices gradually increase according to supply and demand.
But when material goods are not enough:
*80 USD/barrel can jump to 100 USD.
* 100 USD can grow to 130–150 USD very quickly.
* Some extreme scenarios predict over 200 USD/barrel.
This is the phenomenon of panic pricing.
4. Oil price scenario table
Brent Oil Price Scenario
Tensions last 90–110 USD/barrel
Hormuz partial disruption 120–150 USD/barrel
Comprehensive crisis 180–250 USD/barrel
5. Europe is the most vulnerable region
After reducing its dependence on Russian energy, Europe is increasingly dependent on imported oil and LNG by sea.
If logistics are interrupted:
* The oil refinery lacks raw materials.
* Fuel prices increased sharply.
* Inflation returns.
* Risk of economic recession.
6. How will Vietnam be affected?
Petrovietnam and units such as PV GAS and BSR can benefit from high oil prices.
However, the economy will face:
* Gasoline prices increased.
* High logistics costs.
* Inflation pressure.
* Increase production costs.
7. Businesses that can benefit
* HOSE:GAS
* HOSE:BSR
* HOSE:PVD
* HOSE:PVS
8. What the market is underestimating
The market often focuses on:
* Interest rate.
* Economic growth.
* Monetary policy.
But the most important factor today is dwindling physical inventories.
When stocks fall below the safety threshold, prices can fluctuate very strongly.
9. Conclusion
Jeff Currie's warning shows that the world could enter a cycle of energy stress lasting until the end of 2027.
If supply continues to be disrupted, the coming crisis will not only be a problem of rising oil prices but also a problem of rising oil prices.n ensure global energy security.
In the oil market, the scariest thing is not more expensive oil.
The scariest thing is that there is no more oil to buy.
#Energy Security #Oil_Crisis #Brent_Oil_Price #Petrovietnam #PV_GAS #BSR #PVD #PVS #Oil_Gas_Technology
