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If Iran really completely closes the Strait of Hormuz for many weeks, could gasoline prices in Vietnam surpass all records ever seen and the global economy enter a new energy shock?
Middle East tensions are entering a dangerous phase when Iran announced to stop all indirect negotiations with the US and sent a tough signal about the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This maritime route is considered the most important "energy valve" in the world, where tens of millions of barrels of crude oil and huge amounts of LNG liquefied natural gas are transported every day.
This move immediately made the global financial, energy and transportation sectors worried about the risk of a crisis similar to the oil shock of the 1970s.
WHY HORMUZ IS SO IMPORTANT THAT IT MAKES THE WHOLE WORLD WORRIED
Estimated Index
About 20 million barrels of crude oil pass through Hormuz every day
The proportion of global oil trade is nearly 20%
Global LNG passes through Hormuz About 20%
Width of main maritime route: About 39 km
Large dependent countries Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar
Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is the only gateway for most Persian Gulf oil to reach international markets.
If this route is interrupted for just a few days, oil prices can increase sharply due to the market's psychological reaction before supply is actually affected.
OIL PRICE SCENARIO IF HORMUZ IS BLOCKED
Brent Oil Price Scenario
Castraight to maintain 80 - 100 USD/barrel
Partial interruption 100 - 130 USD/barrel
The blockade lasts 150 - 200 USD/barrel
Military conflict expands Over 200 USD/barrel
HOW VIETNAM GAS PRICES MAY BE AFFECTED
World oil prices Expected impact
100 USD/barrel of gasoline increased significantly
150 USD/barrel Transportation costs increased sharply
200 USD/barrel Comprehensive inflationary pressure
Although Vietnam has large oil refineries such as Dung Quat and Nghi Son, domestic retail prices are still strongly influenced by the international market due to having to import a part of crude oil and petroleum products.
⚠️ WHO IS UNDER THE BIGGEST PRESSURE
Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter and most of the LNG must go through Hormuz.
Japan depends heavily on Middle East LNG.
South Korea also imports large quantities of oil and gas from this region.
China is the largest oil customer of Iran and the Gulf countries.
Europe is trying to reduce its dependence on Russia, so it needs LNG from Qatar.
WHAT IS THE FINANCIAL MARKET WORRIED ABOUT?
It's not just oil that a prolonged blockade could cause
• Sea transport prices increased dramatically
• Tanker insurance costs increased sharply
• Global inflation returns
• It is difficult for the central bank to reduce interest rates
• Global stocks are under selling pressure
COMPARISON WITH THE MAJOR OIL CRISIS
Impact Events
Oil crisis 1973 Oil prices increased four times
Gulf War 1990 Oil prices increased more than 100%
Russia - Ukraine conflict 2022 Brent oil exceeds 130 USD
Hormuz is completely blocked. Could create a bigger shock
RECEIVE LOCATIONNH
Currently there is no sign confirming that the Strait of Hormuz has been completely closed. However, the tough statement from Iran alone is enough to shake the world energy market.
What worries investors the most is not the number of missiles or warships, but the possibility that a maritime route only a few dozen kilometers wide can determine gasoline prices, electricity prices, inflation and economic growth of the entire planet.
In your opinion, if Hormuz is really blocked for 30 days, will oil prices exceed 200 USD/barrel and create the largest energy crisis of the 21st century?
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