#OilPrice #China #Oil #Hormuz #Energy #GlobalEconomy #OPEC #OilMarket #InternationalFinance #TimKiemTop
Do many people believe that China's reduction in purchasing millions of barrels of oil per day has helped the world avoid an oil price increase that could exceed 120 USD/barrel?
The conflict in Iran and the Middle East region once made the global financial community worry about the worst scenario. The Strait of Hormuz, the most important energy transport route on the planet, was severely disrupted. Many experts predict that the oil market will fall into chaos.
However, something unexpected happened.
Although the world has lost about 12 million barrels of oil per day from the Gulf region for many months, oil prices have not exploded like previous crises.
China becomes a game changer
According to international energy analysis organizations, China's oil import demand has decreased sharply recently.
Table of changes in China's oil imports
Oil Import Phase
Same period last year: 13 million barrels/day
Latest 30 days 7.5 million barrels/day
April 2026 9.4 million barrels/day
Forecast for May 2026 is 8 million barrels/day
Kpler estimate for May 6.4 million barrels/day
The actual reduction was close to 50% at some points.
This is a very large number if placed in the context of a global market shortage of supply.
Why does China reduce oil purchases?
The reason is explained by expertsEvaluation includes three major factors.
1. Release strategic reserves
During the previous period of prolonged low oil prices, Beijing quietly accumulated huge amounts of oil.
When prices rose because of the war, China began to use these oil reserves instead of continuing to import them at high prices.
2. Reduce oil filtration capacity
Many refineries are put on maintenance or operating below design capacity.
This helps reduce the need to import crude oil from abroad.
3. Restriction on fuel exports
China also sharply reduced exports of diesel and aviation fuel.
Fuel export comparison table
Indicator Level of change
Refined fuel exports Decrease about 65%
Current export level Near 10-year low
Objective Prioritize energy security
What the world has avoided
If China had maintained the same import level as last year, the global oil market could have faced enormous pressure.
Hypothetical supply and demand balance sheet
Output Factor
Supply loss from the Middle East is 12 million barrels/day
Demand decreased from China by 4-5 million barrels/day
Pressure part absorbed About 40%
This is the reason why many experts believe that China has acted as a "pressure relief valve" for the global energy market.
Electric vehicles are creating a strategic advantage
One factor that gets little attention is the electric vehicle boom in China.
Tens of millions of electric vehicles are replacing the need for gasoline consumption.
⚡ The world's largest electrified railway system continues to expand.
☀️ Solar energy and wind power are growing strongly.
Thanks to thatThe world's second largest economy is reducing its dependence on oil much faster than previously forecast.
The worrying thing is still ahead
Experts warn that this is only a temporary solution.
When oil reserves fall or production demand recovers, China will have to return to the market on a large scale.
Then the competition to buy oil could cause energy prices to increase sharply again.
Future risk table
Impact Scenario
China increased imports again Oil prices increased
Prolonged Middle East conflict Supply shortage
Global inventories fell sharply. Price volatility was high
World demand recovers. Price pressure increases
Strategic perspective
The most interesting thing about this crisis is not oil, but how China prepared many years ago.
While many countries still rely heavily on fossil fuels, China has quietly built an ecosystem of electric vehicles, renewable energy and a huge strategic reserve.
As a result, when the world faced one of the largest supply shocks in years, the economy maintained relative stability and unintentionally helped the global oil market avoid a historic price increase.
If China suddenly returns to buy an additional 4-5 million barrels of oil per day at the end of the year, do you think Brent oil price will surpass 120 USD/barrel?
#OilPrice #China #Oil #Hormuz #Iran #Energy #WorldEconomy #ElectricVehicles #EnergySecurity #OilMarket #InternationalFinance #TimKiemTop
