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With just a few more attacks on oil shipping routes in the Gulf, gas prices in Vietnam could increase sharply again in the next few weeks?
New air strikes targeting Kuwait and Oman this week are putting the global energy market once again under stress. After many investors expected a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon to pave the way for a cooling-off process between the US and Iran, new developments have caused optimism to almost disappear.
Although Oman's main seaport is said to have resumed operations, the market still maintains a state of high alert. Brent oil price remains around 95 USD/barrel, equivalent to about 2,470,000 VND/barrel at the current exchange rate. This reflects the fear that any incident occurring in the Gulf region could directly impact global energy supply.
Why Are Oman And Kuwait Important To The Oil Market
Country Role
Oman Located near the Strait of Hormuz, the world's largest oil shipping route
Kuwait One of OPEC's major oil exporters
Saudi Arabia The world's largest oil exporter
UAE Important energy and logistics hub
Iraq Main oil source of the Middle East
About 20% of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Just one attack does gWhen transportation is interrupted, the market immediately reacts.
How Oil Prices Happened This Week
Oil benchmark Current price
North Sea Brent About 95 USD/barrel
US WTI About 91 USD/barrel
Murban UAE About 96 USD/barrel
Convert reference
Item Price VND
Brent About 2,470,000 VND/barrel
WTI About 2,366,000 VND/barrel
Murban About 2,496,000 VND/barrel
Major oil benchmarks all recorded increases of about 2% to 3% during the week.
What the Market Is Most Concerned About
Not the attacks themselves.
What worries traders is the risk of the US and Iran continuing indirect confrontation through allied forces in the region.
If tension spreads
• Tanker insurance costs increased sharply
• International oil transport costs increased
• Risk of fuel supply chain disruption
• Inflationary pressure returns
• Retail gasoline prices in many countries increased
Comparison with Previous Crises
Events Impact on oil prices
Attack on Abqaiq Saudi Arabia facility in 2019 Increased by more than 15% in just one day
Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 Brent exceeds 130 USD/barrel
Hormuz tensions in 2024 Brent rises above 100 USD/barrel
Kuwait - Oman tensions in 2026 Maintaining around 95 USD/barrel
How Vietnam is Affected
Vietnam still imports significant amounts of crude oil and refined products.
When Brent prices increase
Fuel import costs increase
Pressure on domestic gasoline prices increased
Transportation and logistics costs increase
Enterprise production costs increase
Risk of impact on inflation
Although Vietnam's crude oil is like Ba oilCh Ho has quite good quality and is considered to be in the light sweet oil group with high value in the international market. The selling price is still strongly influenced by global developments and reference standards such as Brent.
Market Perspective
Traders are no longer betting heavily on the ability of the US and Iran to quickly reach an agreement to reduce tensions.
Instead, most of the cash flow is shifting to a defensive position. This explains why even though the actual supply has not been seriously interrupted, oil prices still remain high.
If new attacks appear or the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, the scenario of Brent exceeding 100 USD/barrel could completely return.
In your opinion, will the $100/barrel mark return first or will the market soon cool down thanks to diplomatic negotiations?
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