#OilCrisis #Iran #StraitofHormuz #OilPrice2026 #GlobalEnergy #Geopolitics #OilCrisis #BSR #PVGAS #LNG #EnergyInflation
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1️⃣ EXPORT BOTTOM LINE - "BOTTOM KNOCK" OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
The Strait of Hormuz is becoming the biggest choke point in the global energy market
• About 20 percent of the world's oil passes through this area
• Iran's export flow is almost choked
• Oil tankers were detained, turned around or kept waiting for long periods of time
Direct consequence
Production still takes place but cannot be exported
Inventory increases exponentially
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2️⃣ STORAGE IS ABOUT TO BE FULL – PHYSICAL PRESSURE CANNOT BE AVOIDED
The storage center at Kharg Island is approaching its limits
IRAN OIL STORAGE STATUS TABLE
Current Status Indicator
12 to 22 days remaining capacity
Fill level Near maximum
Temporary solution Use ships as floating warehouses
Scalability Almost none
This is no longer a financial problem
Which is the absolute physical limit of the storage system
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3️⃣ RISK OF OIL WELL CLOSING – DAMAGE MAY BE IRREVERSIBLE
When storage reaches the threshold, Iran is forced to reduce exploitation
TECHNICAL RISK TABLE WHEN CLOSING WELLS
Impact Risk
Loss of mine pressure Reduces long-term production
Water intrusion Damage to mine structures
Chemical changes Reduce oil quality
Restarting is difficult. Huge cost
Estimated damage
It may take about 500000 barrels per day of long-term capacity
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4️⃣ SHOCK INCREASE IN OIL PRICES – GLOBAL DOMINO EFFECTMARKET VOLATILITY TABLE
Level Factor
Brent oil price ~ 120 USD equivalent to ~ 3,000,000 VND per barrel
Supply shortfall ~ 2 million barrels per day
Damage to Iran ~ 400 million USD per day
Inflation pressure increased sharply globally
The chain of effects spreads widely
• Domestic gasoline prices increased
• Transportation costs increase
• Manufacturing enterprises are under pressure
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5️⃣ COMPARE BIG “PLAYERS” – WHO IS BENEFITING
INFLUENCE COMPARISON TABLE
Country or organization Impact
Iran Stifled Exports
Saudi Arabia May increase compensatory output
OPEC Better control of the market
United States Increasing geopolitical influence
Russia Benefits from high prices
Reality
Iran's crisis becomes an opportunity for other exporters
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6️⃣ THE NATURE OF THE GAME – “SLOWLY TIGHTEN TO THE BREATH”
This is not an immediate shock
It's a long-term pressure strategy
• Do not attack directly
• Do not destroy immediately
• But causes the system to crash when it reaches its limit
When the warehouse is full
The crisis will change from smoldering to explosive
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IN-DEPTH CONCLUSION
✔️ Iran is on the verge of a storage crisis
✔️ Oil and gas systems become choked over time
✔️ Global oil prices enter a period of strong fluctuations
If the condition persists for a few more weeks
• Large-scale production cuts are certain
• The risk of long-term capacity loss is present
• The global energy market may enter a new price shock cycle
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This is one of the biggest "energy tipping points" after 2022
And it could reshape the global oil balance in many waysu next year
#IranCrisis #OilPriceRise #Energy2026 #GlobalGeopolitics #StraitofHormuz #BSR #PVGAS #OilMarket #WorldEconomy
