The first quarter of 2026 marks a period of very strong growth for Vietnam's aviation industry. The two leading enterprises in the industry, Vietnam Airlines and Vietjet Air, both recorded strong increases in profits thanks to recovery in international tourism demand, high seat utilization coefficients and stable ticket prices. However, entering the second quarter, the biggest risk for the entire industry comes from the most difficult factor to control: Jet A1 fuel prices. 
✈️ Business Results for the First Quarter of 2026: Record Growth
Vietnam Airlines
* Consolidated revenue: more than 37,500 billion VND
* Profit after tax: about 4,514 billion VND
* Highest profit level in recent years
Vietjet Air
* Consolidated revenue: 21,021 billion VND
* Profit before tax: 1,142 billion VND
* Profit growth of more than 36% over the same period
Main driving forces
1. The number of international visitors increased sharply.
2. Flight routes to Japan, Korea, China and Europe recover.
3. Fuel prices in the first quarter remained relatively stable.
4. Exchange rates and aircraft rental costs have not fluctuated too much.

⛽ Flight Fuel: The Cost That Decides Life
Aviation fuel usually accounts for about 30–40% of an airline's total operating costs. If oil prices increase by just 10 USD/barrel, profits can decrease by hundreds to thousands of billions of VND depending on the fleet size.
Why Are Fuel Prices Soaring?
* Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
* Risk of disruption to transportation through the Strait of Hormuz.
* Brent oil price vand Jet Fuel spiked.
* International transport insurance premiums are higher.
Impact on Airlines
Influential Factors
Fuel prices increased. Profit margins decreased
USD/VND exchange rate increases. Aircraft rental costs are higher
Competitive ticket prices Difficult to transfer all costs to customers
Low season Revenue decreases but fixed costs are still large
Which Firm Is Under Greater Pressure?
✈️ Vietnam Airlines
* Large fleet size.
* High proportion of international routes.
* Sensitive to fuel prices but experienced in risk management.
Vietjet Air
* Low cost model.
* Flexibility in fleet management.
* Price competition pressure is very high.
Bamboo Airways
* Currently in the restructuring phase.
* Fuel fluctuations directly affect recovery.
Outlook for the Second Half of 2026
Favorable scenario:
* Middle East tensions cool down.
* Oil prices fell to the stable zone.
* International tourism continues to grow.
Unfavorable scenario:
* Oil prices remain high.
* Profit margin decreased sharply.
* Some firms may have to adjust their business plans.
Investor Perspective
HVN and VJC shares are still supported by the recovery in travel demand. However, oil price developments and the USD/VND exchange rate will be the two variables that determine business results in the second quarter and the whole year of 2026.
Conclusion
Vietnam's aviation industry has just experienced a very successful first quarter, but the second quarter can be a period of great challenges. If fuel prices continue to climb, record profits could be achieved quicklyg is narrowed.
However, international and domestic tourism demand is still growing well, creating a positive long-term foundation for Vietnamese airlines.
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