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A fertilizer business profited nearly 800 billion VND in just 3 months, is this a golden opportunity or a peak that makes investors easily trapped?
Ca Mau Petroleum Fertilizer Joint Stock Company, stock code DCM, just had an extremely breakthrough first quarter of 2026 when profit after tax reached 789 billion VND, an increase of 91 percent over the same period. The main driving force comes from sharp increases in global urea prices, accelerated exports and marked improvement in profit margins
Business results for the first quarter of 2026
Value Indicator
Net revenue is 5,286 billion VND
55 percent revenue growth
Profit after tax is 789 billion VND
91 percent profit growth
Profit from business activities is 816 billion VND
Urea export 177,000 tons
Urea export revenue is 1,866 billion VND
Urea export gross profit margin 41 percent
The most notable point is the urea export segment. In the context of world supply disruptions in Russia and the Middle East, DCM quickly took advantage of the opportunity to boost export output.
Urea export becomes a growth engine
Urea export output reached 177,000 tons, up 19 percent over the same period. Urea export revenue reached 1,866 billion VND, an increase of 34 percent.
Gross profit margin of the urea export segment increased to 41 percent, higher than 36 percent in the same period last year. This is a very strong improvement, showing that DCM not only sells more but also sells with a profit marginbetter.
NPK and fertilizer trade accelerated together
Mảng kinh doanh Kết quả nổi bật
Urea exported 177,000 tons, revenue 1,866 billion VND
NPK Revenue 815 billion VND, up 56 percent
Sản lượng NPK Tăng 47 phần trăm
Biên lợi nhuận gộp NPK 16 phần trăm
Fertilizer products Revenue was 1,489 billion VND, nearly 6 times higher
The NPK segment showed positive signs when both revenue and output increased sharply. Meanwhile, fertilizer trade is booming, helping DCM have a large source of revenue outside of traditional products.
DCM has gone very fast compared to the year's plan
According to Mirae Asset, after only the first quarter of the year, DCM has completed 69 percent of the urea export output plan and 67 percent of the year's profit plan.
This is a very high speed of plan implementation, creating expectations that the business can exceed the target if international urea prices continue to anchor in a favorable area.
Forecast for 2026
Forecasting criteria Value
Sản lượng tiêu thụ urê 837.000 tấn
Doanh thu dự kiến 18.465 tỷ đồng
Tăng trưởng doanh thu 11 phần trăm
Expected profit after tax is 1,969 billion VND
Target price of DCM stock is 47,000 VND per share
Market price on May 15 was 43,750 VND per share
Market capitalization More than 23,161 billion VND
Mirae Asset kept its hold recommendation with DCM but raised its target price to 47,000 VND per share, about 7 percent higher than the current market price.
Compare with businesses in the same industry
Business Highlights
Ca Mau Fertilizer is strong in urea, exports are increasing rapidly, benefiting from global urea prices
Phu My Fertilizer Big brand, long-standing production foundationm, direct competition in the urea segment
Binh Dien Manh about NPK and mixed fertilizers
Lam Thao has a long history in inorganic fertilizers
Super Phosphates and Chemicals Lam Thao Associated with phosphate fertilizers and traditional agricultural products
DCM's most notable competitor is Phu My Fertilizer because it is in the same group of petroleum fertilizers and competes directly in the urea segment. Meanwhile, Binh Dien puts pressure on the NPK segment, especially when the demand for mixed fertilizers is increasing.
Capacity expansion plan
DCM is preparing to increase factory capacity to 125 percent of design capacity. Total investment capital is expected to be about 800 to 1,000 billion VND.
The project is expected to start construction at the end of 2026 and be completed in the third quarter of 2027. At the same time, the enterprise invests in Nhon Trach port to optimize logistics and increase long-term import-export capacity.
Risks cannot be ignored
Although business results are impressive, the domestic market still has short-term pressure. Low agricultural prices and high agricultural input costs could weaken domestic fertilizer demand in the next few months.
DCM shares are also shaking strongly in the range of 40,000 to 50,000 VND per share, showing that expectations are partly reflected in the price.
Review
DCM is entering a period of clear benefit from the global urea price cycle. Strong profits, booming exports and plans to expand capacity show that the business has a remarkable growth foundation.
However, the hot spot is that profits currently depend largely on international urea prices. If prices reverse or domestic demand continues to be weak,Profit margins could come under pressure again.
Investors at this time need to look at DCM as a cyclical stock with a good foundation, not just look at the sudden profit numbers and rush to buy it.
Do you think DCM still has room to exceed 50,000 VND per share, or is this already a price range that easily shakes investors?
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