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If China suddenly returns to the market with a demand for millions of barrels of oil per day just as the Middle East has a supply crisis, will gasoline prices in Vietnam increase dramatically in just a few weeks?
The global oil market is facing a very remarkable paradox. While many investors still believe that oil demand is weakening and world economic growth is slowing, one giant factor that is being underestimated is China.
For many months, the world's second largest economy has not bought oil as strongly as before. Instead, Beijing quietly uses its huge strategic oil reserves accumulated over many years. This strategy has helped reduce pressure on global oil prices amid escalating war in the Middle East.
However, things could soon change.
China Is Consuming Reserved Oil Instead of Importing
According to organizations that monitor international oil transportation, China's crude oil imports in the most recent month were only about 6.78 million barrels per day, the lowest level in nearly a decade.
Compare China's oil imports
Oil Import Phase
Average in 2025 is 10.66 million barrels/day
April 2026 8.5 million barrels/day
May 2026 6.78 million barrels/day
This decrease is equivalent to more than 36% compared to the previous year's average.
What is worth noting is the need for fuel consumptionin water did not decrease correspondingly. That shows that refineries are taking oil from reserves instead of importing new ones.
Huge Stockpiles Are Eroding
International estimates suggest that China once possessed between 1.2 and 1.3 billion barrels of oil reserves.
Scale of strategic oil warehouse
Value Indicator
Oil reserves are estimated at 1.2 - 1.3 billion barrels
Responsiveness Approximately 4 months
Oil put into storage in 2025 is about 1 million barrels/day
This reserve is considered a "safety cushion" to help China withstand geopolitical shocks.
But as the amount of oil in storage is continuously withdrawn to serve fuel production and export, the pressure to re-import will become increasingly greater.
The Race for Russian Oil Is Heating Up
Another problem giving Beijing a headache is the shrinking supply of cheap supplies.
China is heavily dependent on Russian oil and Iranian oil at attractive discounts.
However currently:
Supply Status
Russia Fierce competition with India
Iran Prices increased sharply
Venezuela Restricted
USA Import tax 22.5%
This leaves Chinese refiners with significantly fewer options than their European or Asian competitors.
In particular, India is emerging as a direct competitor to China in the race to hunt for cheap Russian oil.
The Middle East Could Be a Trigger
What worries analysts most is not that China is returning to buying oil.
It's when they come back.
The International Energy Agency warns that July and August could become dangerous zones for global oil supplies.beginning when risks in the Middle East peaked.
If China increases imports at the right time:
✅ Iran's exports were interrupted
✅ Strait of Hormuz faces security risks
✅ Russian supply is under pressure from sanctions
✅ Summer demand increases sharply
The market may experience a double shock in supply and demand.
How High Oil Prices Can Rise
Currently:
Type of oil Current price
WTI is about 2,280,000 VND/barrel
Brent is about 2,380,000 VND/barrel
Murban is about 2,350,000 VND/barrel
Converted at an exchange rate of about 26,100 VND/USD.
Some large energy corporations warn that in extreme scenarios, oil prices could approach the mark:
Brent Price Scenario
Base 90 - 100 USD/barrel
Supply crisis 120 - 140 USD/barrel
Extreme 160 USD/barrel
If Brent increases to 160 USD/barrel, the value of each barrel of oil is equivalent to about 4,180,000 VND.
Impact on Vietnam
Vietnam is not outside the circle of influence.
A sharp increase in oil prices could lead to:
* Retail gasoline prices increased
* Logistics costs increase
* Freight prices increased
* Industrial production costs increase
* Inflationary pressure returns
On the contrary, oil and gas businesses can benefit significantly if oil prices remain high for a long time.
What the Market Might Be Misvaluing
Many investors are currently focused on the risk of a global economic recession and believe that oil demand will weaken.
But the reality is that China is still consuming huge amounts of fuel every day.
Oil reserves are not an infinite resource.
When Beijing was forced to return to the international market to replenishmillions of barrels of oil per day, the entire balance of supply and demand can reverse very quickly.
That's why more and more experts believe that the next increase in oil prices may not come from war, but from the return of the world's largest buyer.
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