#Vietnam #Straits of Hormuz #Energy Security #NghiSon #BSR #PVN #SupplyChain #EconomyVietnam #BloombergBusinessweekVietnam #HinrichFoundation
If the global oil flow is blocked for just a few weeks, gasoline prices in Vietnam could increase dramatically, inflation explode and a series of factories are at risk of reduced capacity?
A notable observation from recent analyzes shows that Vietnam is one of the economies most "deeply connected" to global trade. This helps the country grow rapidly, but also makes Vietnam especially sensitive to international energy and logistics shocks.
How important is the Strait of Hormuz?
The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic maritime route connecting the Persian Gulf to the world.
Indicator Global proportion
Crude oil transported through Hormuz About 20%
LNG transported via Hormuz About 20%
Fertilizer passes through this area Nearly 30%
Percentage of oil passing through Hormuz heading to Asia More than 80%
If this route is blocked, Brent oil prices could exceed 150 USD/barrel in a bad scenario, leading to a sharp increase in transportation, electricity, food and raw material costs. 
Why is Vietnam vulnerable?
Vietnam is not the largest oil importer, but is very dependent on international trade.
Vietnam index
Total import-export turnover compared to GDP Over 180%
The proportion of production and processing for export is very high
High dependence on imported raw materials
Strategic petroleum reserves Modest compared to Japan and South Korea
This means that if energy prices increase sharply, the entire economy will suffer a chain impact.
⛽ Nghi Son and Dung Quat oil refineries are under pressure
Vietnam National Industry and Energy Group is operating a key energy supply chain.
Two main factories include:
* Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Company with Dung Quat Oil Refinery
* Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical Factory
When oil prices increase too sharply
* Crude oil import costs increased
* Working capital demand increased by tens of thousands of billions of VND
* Profit margin fluctuates strongly
