#DauMo #ChauA #Hormuz #GiaDau #KhungHoangNangLuong #IEA #KinhTeTheGioi #CongNgheDauKhi #OilMarket #AsiaEnergy #GiaXang #DauTho #TrungDong #KinhDoanhQuocTe
If the Strait of Hormuz continues to block oil flows for a few more weeks, will Asia face an even more terrible oil shock and inflation than in 2022?
The global oil market is entering an extremely sensitive period when actual usable inventories in Asia are falling near "minimum operating levels". This is the threshold at which oil refining systems, pipelines and storage facilities only have enough oil to maintain basic operations and have no room to cope with supply shocks.
Jeff Currie from Carlyle Group warns that Asia is currently the most dangerous region because of its heavy dependence on Middle Eastern oil. About 80% of the region's oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz — the world's strategic energy chokepoint.
GLOBAL OIL INVENTORY SITUATION
Volatility Index
Global oil supply in April 95.1 million barrels/day
Supply decline since February 12.8 million barrels/day
Inventories decreased in March by 129 million barrels
Inventories decreased in April by 117 million barrels
Oil refining capacity in the second quarter was 78.7 million barrels/day
Gulf oil dropped by 14.4 million barrels/day
The scary thing is that most of the current oil inventory is actually "dead oil" - that is, the amount of oil that must be in the system to avoid technical damage and ensure operational safety. The oil part can really toss rThe market is much lower than published statistics.
ASIA IS IN A "RACE FOR SURVIVAL"
India had to reduce oil refining output by nearly 9% in just one month and redirect oil imports from Latin America and Africa to reduce dependence on the Middle East.
The Philippines for the first time since 2022 will receive oil from the US strategic reserve SPR to avoid the risk of large-scale fuel shortages.
Pakistan is even preparing to force refineries to reserve enough oil for 15 days and finished fuel for 30 days to prevent the risk of social disruption.
COMPARISON OF HORMUZ EO DEPENDENCE
Country/Region Dependency Ratio
Asia About 80%
Pakistan Nearly 90%
Japan Over 85%
Europe Lower thanks to US SPR
US Lower thanks to shale oil autonomy
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE MARKET ENTERS THE “RED ZONE”
If supply continues to decline into July or August as the IEA warns, the world could witness it
• Brent oil price surpassed the mark of 120 USD/barrel
• Electricity and gas prices in Asia increased dramatically
• Inflation returned strongly
• Logistics and aviation costs skyrocketed
• Risk of industrial recession in Europe and East Asia
• Energy importing economies like Vietnam are under extreme pressure
COUNTRY GROUP WORST AFFECTED
Risk Group
Japan Lacks LNG and imported oil
Korea's petrochemical industry is under pressure
India Oil refining costs increased sharply
Pakistan Risk of fuel shortage
Philippines Depends almost entirely on imports
Meanwhile, the US is in a better position thanks to large domestic shale oil output. This creates distanceExtreme competition between the US economy and many Asian economies.
IMPACT ON GAS PRICES AND LIFE
If high oil prices persist
Gasoline prices may increase sharply again
✈️ International airfares continue to escalate
Industrial production prices increased
Prices of imported consumer goods were pushed up
⚡ Electricity prices in many Asian countries increased
In particular, summer is always the period of greatest energy consumption of the year. If the Middle East supply is interrupted for a few more weeks, the shortage pressure will explode extremely quickly.
What worries the market most today is no longer "high oil prices" but the risk of "not having enough oil left to rotate the system".
#KhungHoangNangLuong #GiaDauTheGioi #Hormuz #DauTho #IEA #OilShock #AsiaCrisis #KinhTeToanCau #CongNgheDauKhi #GiaXang #LNG #MiddleEast #NangLuongToanCau
