The Asian oil crisis is approaching the most dangerous "red zone" since the global energy shock
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If the Strait of Hormuz continues to block oil flows for a few more weeks, will Asia face an even more terrible oil shock and inflation than in 2022?
The global oil market is entering an extremely sensitive period when actual usable inventories in Asia are falling near "minimum operating levels". This is the threshold at which oil refining systems, pipelines and storage facilities only have enough oil to maintain basic operations and have no room to cope with supply shocks.
Jeff Currie from Carlyle Group warns that Asia is currently the most dangerous region because of its heavy dependence on Middle Eastern oil. About 80% of the region's oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz — the world's strategic energy chokepoint.
GLOBAL OIL INVENTORY SITUATIONVolatility Index
Global oil supply in April 95.1 million barrels/day
Supply decline since February 12.8 million barrels/day
Inventories decreased in March by 129 million barrels
Inventories decreased in April by 117 million barrels
Oil refining capacity in the second quarter was 78.7 million barrels/day
Gulf oil dropped by 14.4 million barrels/day
The scary thing is that most of the current oil inventory is actually "dead oil" - that is, the amount of oil that must be in the system to avoid technical damage and ensure operational safety. The portion of oil that can actually be released to the market is much lower than published statistics.
ASIA IS IN A "RACE FOR SURVIVAL"India had to reduce oil refining output by nearly 9% in just one month and redirect oil imports from Latin America and Africa to reduce dependence on the Middle East.
The Philippines for the first time since 2022 will receive oil from the US strategic reserve SPR to avoid the risk of large-scale fuel shortages.
Pakistan is even preparing to force refineries to reserve enough oil for 15 days and finished fuel for 30 days to prevent the risk of social disruption.
COMPARISON OF HORMUZ EO DEPENDENCECountry/Region Dependency Ratio
Asia About 80%
Pakistan Nearly 90%
Japan Over 85%
Europe Lower thanks to US SPR
US Lower thanks to shale oil autonomy
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE MARKET ENTERS THE “RED ZONE”If supply continues to decline into July or August as the IEA warns, the world could witness it
• Brent oil price surpassed the mark of 120 USD/barrel
• Electricity and gas prices in Asia increased dramatically
• Inflation returned strongly
• Logistics and aviation costs skyrocketed
• Risk of industrial recession in Europe and East Asia
• Energy importing economies like Vietnam are under extreme pressure
COUNTRY GROUP WORST AFFECTEDRisk Group
Japan Lacks LNG and imported oil
Hàn Quốc Công nghiệp hóa dầu chịu áp lực
Ấn Độ Chi phí lọc dầu tăng mạnh
Pakistan Nguy cơ thiếu nhiên liệu
Philippines Phụ thuộc nhập khẩu gần như hoàn toàn
Trong khi đó Mỹ lại đang ở vị thế tốt hơn nhờ sản lượng shale oil nội địa lớn. Điều này tạo ra khoảng cách cạnh tranh cực mạnh giữa kinh tế Mỹ và nhiều nền kinh tế châu Á.
TÁC ĐỘNG TỚI GIÁ XĂNG VÀ ĐỜI SỐNGNếu giá dầu neo cao kéo dài
Giá xăng có thể tăng mạnh trở lại
Vé máy bay quốc tế tiếp tục leo thang
Giá sản xuất công nghiệp tăng cao
Giá hàng tiêu dùng nhập khẩu bị đẩy lên
Giá điện tại nhiều nước châu Á tăng theoĐặc biệt mùa hè luôn là giai đoạn tiêu thụ năng lượng lớn nhất năm. Chỉ cần nguồn cung Trung Đông gián đoạn thêm vài tuần, áp lực thiếu hụt sẽ bùng nổ cực nhanh.
Điều khiến thị trường lo lắng nhất hiện nay không còn là “giá dầu cao” nữa mà là nguy cơ “không còn đủ dầu để xoay vòng hệ thống”.