#ChungKhanVietNam #VNINDEX #ThanhKhan #CoPhieu #DauTu #NhaDauTu #Vingroup #NganHang #TaiChinh #TimKiemTop
Liquidity fell to the lowest level in more than a year but the VN-Index is still forecast to reach 2,100 points. Is this a silent golden opportunity or a sign of a new deep decline that will surprise many investors?
The Vietnamese stock market just started June with a disappointing trading session when the VN-Index lost nearly 19 points, while the matched order value on HOSE was only about 11,400 billion VND. This is the lowest level since the period of strong volatility following the April 2025 tariff event.
What is worth noting is that the decline in liquidity did not appear suddenly but lasted for many months. The once vibrant cash flow is now gradually disappearing from the market, causing many investors to question whether the uptrend has ended or is just taking a break.
LIQUIDITY DEVELOPMENT TABLE
Value Indicator
HOSE liquidity in the most recent session was 11,400 billion VND
Compared to previous session, 22% reduction
Average liquidity in May More than 22,000 billion VND
Compared to the average of the first 5 months of the year, nearly 20% lower
Foreign investors' net selling in the first 5 months of 2026 is about 64,000 billion VND
Net sale in May 2026 alone Nearly 18,000 billion VND
INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY IS GOING DOWN
After a period of strong increase, VN-Index continuously shook and lost about 80 points from the peak area.
What makes many investors disappointed is that although the general index has reached a new peak, the majority of individual accounts have notcorresponding antenna.
The increase mainly focused on stocks belonging to the Vingroup ecosystem while many large industries such as securities, technology and oil and gas traded less actively.
Many accounts recorded a decrease of 10% to 30% right during the period when the market was considered the most active.
CASH FLOW EFFECT COMPARISON TABLE
Industry group Level of cash flow attraction
Vingroup Very high
Average Bank
Stock Low
Low Tech
Petroleum Low
WHY IS CASH FLOW WITHDRAWING FROM THE MARKET
Experts believe that the main reason comes from the imbalance between supply and demand.
On the demand side, the economy is in need of a huge amount of capital for public investment and expansion of production and business.
Interest rates began to tend to increase, making speculative cash flow no longer as abundant as before.
Meanwhile, credit grows faster than capital mobilization, making cheap money increasingly scarce.
On the supply side, the market also faces many large IPOs in the second half of the year, which could attract tens of thousands of billions of dong from the secondary market.
In particular, foreign investors still maintain their strongest net selling status in many years.
PRESSURE FROM THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET
Another reason comes from the US and Japanese 30-year government bond yields remaining at high levels.
When yields increase, global investment funds tend to withdraw capital from emerging markets like Vietnam to switch to safer assets.
This causes prolonged net selling pressure and weakens demand in the domestic stock market.
MARKET VALUATION IS AT HOTLEAD MORE
Although the current psychology is quite pessimistic, many experts see positive signs.
If we remove the impact of Vingroup, the entire market P/E is currently only around 11 times, significantly lower than the historical average.
PRICE SHEET
Indicator Current level
Market P/E after excluding Vingroup About 11 times
Expected corporate profit growth is 15% - 17%
Medium-term VN-Index target is 2,100 points
WHAT IS THE SCENARIO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF 2026?
The positive scenario shows that the market is in the accumulation phase before a new growth cycle.
Strong increases in history often occur when most investors are still skeptical and liquidity is low.
If corporate profits continue to maintain a double-digit growth rate, the market has a chance to regain upward momentum in the coming quarters.
A perspective worth pondering is that when the majority of investors lose patience and cash flow declines the most, that is sometimes the time when the market silently creates the foundation for a new growth cycle.
#VNINDEX #ChungKhan #ThanhKhanThiTruong #CoPhieuNganHang #Vingroup #DauTuTaiChinh #NhaDauTuCaNhan #ThiTruongVon #ChungKhanVietNam #TimKiemTop
